Russian officials are responding cautiously to a proposal made by a Kyrgyz opposition leader that Russia and Kyrgyzstan enter into a confederation.

Former Kyrgyz Prime Minister Feliks Kulov – who is currently wandering in Kyrgyzstan's political wilderness following his ouster last January – is trying to repackage himself as a friend of Moscow, apparently aiming to revive his political fortunes with Russia's assistance. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Kulov accordingly launched a wild trial balloon in late May, calling for Kyrgyzstan's unification with Russia.

In comments published June 1 in the opposition Agym newspaper, Kulov argued that a confederation with Russia would offer Kyrgyzstan a way out of two persistent problems - friction between the northern and southern portions of the country, and economic malaise. Kulov warned that Kyrgyzstan faced the possibility of a sectional break-up if the country continues on its present political course. "Because the division within the country is so large, we should take measures to set up a union... and get rid of the split," he added.

When asked if he expected Moscow to be receptive to his idea, Kulov responded positively. "Russia would not refuse to unite, if [the Kyrgyz] people vote for a union in a referendum," Kulov reasoned. Later, he insisted that such a referendum, if held, would support unification, even though he produced no evidence to buttress his claim. At the same time, Kulov offered a caveat that a would-be union with Russia could function only on the condition that Kyrgyzstan retain its national sovereignty and statehood.

In Moscow, experts and politicians alike are governed by a logic that is starkly different from Kulov's. Following years of futile attempts to forge a viable bond between Russia and Belarus, officials in Moscow seem to view Kulov's initiative as detached from reality, and potentially destabilizing for the Kremlin's relations with Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's administration.

Russian experts and politicians have reacted to the confederation proposal with muted skepticism. For example, Vladimir Vasiliyev, who heads the Russian parliament's Committee of Security, noted on June 4 that a parliamentary delegation was planning a visit to Kyrgyzstan this summer, adding that any comment before the delegation's departure would be inappropriate.

Some Russian political analysts have pointedly stated that confederation with Bishkek would be more of a burden than a boon to the conduct of Russian foreign policy. Russia seeks strong strategic partners in Central Asia, yet Kyrgyzstan is a weak ally, plagued by internal political feuds and economic stagnation, Russian political analyst Sergei Markov said June 4. Rather than forging confederation with Bishkek, Russia would be better served by strengthening ties with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Markov added.

However, Markov conceded that Kyrgyzstan's associated membership in the Russian Federation could bring Moscow certain strategic benefits. Kyrgyzstan is home to a US military base in Central Asia, and if Moscow made a decision based on geopolitics, rather than economics, to confederate with Bishkek, the presence of a US base outside the Kyrgyz capital would likely become untenable. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Despite this attractive prospect from Moscow's perspective, the Kremlin seems to deem the costs of confederation to be prohibitive at this time.

Even without a confederation, US officials are encountering growing anti-American sentiment in Kyrgyzstan. In May, disgruntled Kyrgyz MPs suggested that parliament might consider annulling the lease. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
On June 5, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates traveled Bishkek for talks with Kyrgyz leaders, but the visit did not produce any tangible improvement in bilateral relations.

Kyrgyz officials are generally dismissive of Kulov's confederation idea. Marat Sultanov, the Kyrgyz parliament speaker, has been the most outspoken opponent of the plan. "For Kyrgyzstan, it is better to create unions, like the European Union, instead of confederations," he said at a June 4 news conference. "If anyone wants to live in Russia, they are welcome to do so. We [already] have the institution of dual citizenship," Sultanov added.

Though reluctant to confederate, Sultanov nevertheless is a booster of stronger bilateral Kyrgyz-Russian ties. The speaker visited Moscow for talks in May, where he described Russia as Kyrgyzstan's major partner.