Once again as it has before in its troubled history, the Nabucco pipeline consortium has announced a postponement of construction until 2013, citing a lack of supply contracts, Robert M. Cutler of the Asia Times reports. Gas would not start pumping until 2017,
Reuters reported.

Only last May, Germany's gas giant RWE
announced a postponement, implying Ashgabat was causing the hold-up. "As soon as the political framework has been created, Turkmenistan will be ready to sign a supply contract," RWE representative Stefan Judisch said at the time. RWE was reprimanded for jumping the gun, but by November 2010, Cutler was then saying Turkmenistan was "signalling its readiness" for the pipeline. Then, it stalled again -- and the New York Times said the problem was really Azerbaijan, which is not yet sure if it will sell gas to Nabucco or some other pipeline.

With each new postponement, the cost of Nabucco has been revised upward, with current estimates leaked to the press ranging from €12 to €15 billion -- double the figure from 2005, says Cutler, although Nabucco’s managing director calls this “speculative.” When completed, the pipeline would run through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to Vienna and on to other EU customers.

Meanwhile, without pronouncing on the entire complex structure of Nabucco at all, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has lately been making statements in support of the Trans-Caspian pipeline. When he met with European Commission President José Manuel Barroso in January, the Turkmen leader said the most attractive way to transport Turkmen gas would be via the Trans-Caspian, trend.az commentator Aygun Badalova reported.

Last week, Berdymukhamedov headed to Romania, an EU member, to meet with President Traian Basescu. In Bucharest, the Turkmen leader made some of his most encouraging statements to date about directly making available the rich storehouses of gas in the Turkmen sectors of the Caspian Sea to Europe. The Turkmen president also spoke of the the importance of building the Trans-Caspian pipeline “to enable reliable and secure energy deliveries to Europe," trend.az reported.

Interestingly, given a long history of failure to resolve Caspian border demarcation disputes with Baku -- a major obstacle to any pipeline project -- the Turkmen leader also emphasized that “the political will of the participating parties, which should be framed as an agreement between the EU, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, is an important condition for mutually beneficial energy cooperation," the semi-official news agency turkmenistan.ru reported.

The Nabucco consortium is still saying it is optimistic about building the Trans-Caspian, which is an integral part of the Nabucco project, trend.az reported May 13, citing a statement from representative Christian Dolezal. The 300-kilometer pipeline would run under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and then later be hooked up to the Nabucco pipeline.

During the Bucharest visit, Berdymukhamedov also expressed interest in taking part in AGRI, the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector, says trend.az. In a joint statement with the Romanian leader, Berdymukhamedov affirmed the importance of delivering Turkmen gas to Europe, including through projects that are a priority for Romania -- Nabucco and AGRI. AGRI will start with gas from Azerbaijan, which will be liquefied and brought in tankers to the Romanian port of Constanta, and then turned back into gas and piped to other areas of Romania and Europe. Turkmenistan could supply gas to Azerbaijan to be transited further to Europe; the cost of AGRI is estimated between $1.2-$4.5 billion.

During Berdymukhamedov's visit, an agreement was signed on cooperation between the Romanian port of Constanta and Turkmenbashi, with plans to modernize the Turkmen port and build a ship repair plant, logistics center, docks and an automobile and passenger terminal

At his meeting with Basescu, Berdymukhamedov praised the Romanian gas and oil workers already working in Turkmenistan and expressed intentions to establish more direct business contacts between the two countries, and also spoke of modernization of the oil and gas industry and major investment projects. He then went beyond the usual boilerplate for these meetings:

"And here cooperation on the development of promising blocs on the Turkmen shelf of the Caspian Sea could be very effective," the State News Agency of Turkmenistan (TDH) quoted him as saying.

Perhaps with Romania, Turkmenistan has finally found a partner it can live with in its concept of itself as "architect of new transcontinental bridges to Europe," as TDH described Ashgabat's role. Even so, the relationship will need more than just some spruced-up seaports -- bringing the Trans-Caspian pipeline into being will require the concentrated effort of EU diplomats to make good on Ashgabat's declaration of a readiness finally to produce the political will needed to end the dispute with Baku for the sake of the gas deals to be made.