Russian leader Vladimir Putin currently finds himself in an uncomfortable position, in which his ‘never-back-down’ persona, long seen as a political strength, threatens to become a major obstacle in defusing brewing tension with Azerbaijan. In his handling of the accidental shoot-down of an Azerbaijani airliner, Putin is up against a hardened and determined opponent, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, who possesses lots of leverage.

Putin and Aliyev are similar in many ways – authoritarian-minded, intolerant of criticism and firmly in charge of their respective governments. In recent years they have significantly expanded bilateral relations. But their differing responses to the December 25 Azerbaijani airliner tragedy threaten to sour their previously strong personal relationship, as well as Azerbaijani-Russian ties.

Over the past three days, ever since evidence started to mount that the airliner crash in Kazakhstan, in which 38 individuals died, was caused by Russian air defense forces, Aliyev has backed Putin into a corner, demanding that Russia be accountable for shooting down the plane accidentally. So far, Putin has offered only a tepid apology while steadfastly dodging the question of responsibility, despite the preponderance of evidence and eyewitness testimony pointing to an unintended shoot-down.

As Russian authorities have tried to bob and weave, Aliyev has come right at Russia, steadily raising the pressure on the Kremlin to admit culpability for the tragedy. On December 29, inan interview broadcast on state television, Aliyev flatly announced that Russia jammed the Azerbaijani airliner’s operating systems as it approached Grozny, the craft’s intended destination, then a Russian air-defense system peppered it with anti-aircraft fire. He also indicated that it is not the shoot-down per se that presents a problem for bilateral relations, it is Russia’s efforts to evade responsibility.

“One of the moments that upset and surprised us was that official Russian structures put forward a version about the explosion of some gas cylinder. That is, it openly showed that the Russian side wants to cover up the issue, and this, of course, does no one any honor,” Aliyev said in the interview.

“Our plane was shot down by accident. Of course, there can be no talk of any deliberate terrorist act here. Therefore, admitting one's guilt, promptly apologizing to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly country, and communicating it to the public – all of these were measures and steps that needed to be taken.”

Aliyev derided Russia’s initial explanations for the tragedy as “absurd theories” and has stated three conditions that Russia needs to meet to put bilateral relations back on an even keel. In addition to an apology, which Putin has already technically issued, Aliyev demanded that Russia criminally prosecute those responsible for bringing the plane down and pay compensation to the victims.

It is not a very high bar that Aliyev has set. But so far Russian officials have given no response to what can be described as Aliyev’s ultimatum. Given the Russian silence, the Azerbaijani leader has remained on the rhetorical offensive, doing all in his power to reduce Russia’s ability to influence the crash narrative. Voicing no confidence in Russia’s ability to conduct a fair investigation, Azerbaijan insisted that the crashed jet’s black boxes be sent to the Brazilian Center for the Investigation and Prevention of Aviation Accidents for analysis. “It is extremely important for Azerbaijan that the investigation of the plane crash be impartial,” the Caliber.az website quoted Aliyev as saying in a report distributed on December 30.

If Russia will not admit the facts, Aliyev seems determined to rub Putin’s nose in reality.

Azerbaijani observers at present believe that while seemingly on a collision course, Aliyev and Putin will find a way to avoid a rupture in relations: Russia will eventually prosecute some scapegoats and quietly pay compensation, some say; others believe Aliyev’s actions are mostly performative.

“They have a closeness with each other that is superior to being political allies. They are so close that, to put it in the vernacular, they are strengthened by quarreling from time to time,” Elman Fettah, a political activist in Prague, commented on social media.

But if some sort of settlement is not found soon, developments could reach a crossroads at which the egos of the two leaders – who operate with no checks on their respective authority, and for whom projecting an image of strength is everything – could override sound policymaking.

Aliyev has already pushed things to a point where it may be hard for him to acquiesce without incurring some level of embarrassment either to himself or to Russia. And everyone knows that Putin is someone who cannot abide being embarrassed. He has a well-established reputation for holding long grudges. 

But Aliyev is also a leader who can hold a long grudge, and who has demonstrated a willingness to confront powers much larger than Azerbaijan. For example, his unrestrained animus for France caused disruption at the COP29 environmental conference, held in Baku in November. And he is maintaining long-running feuds with the United States and Council of Europe.

In his brewing dispute with Putin, Aliyev not only has the facts on his side, but some potential economic leverage. Azerbaijan is a key node in the so-called North-South corridor, a trade route that helps Russia evade sanctions and maintain its war effort in Ukraine. Putin, at the same time, appears to be low on instruments in his toolkit that could compel Aliyev to ease up, underscored by Russia’s inability to help its erstwhile Syrian client, Bashar Assad, cling to power.

Baku has already demonstrated that it is not afraid to cross Russia. In the fall, Azerbaijan brushed aside Kremlin concerns by agreeing with Armenia to exclude Russia from having a peacekeeping role as part of any Armenian-Azerbaijani peace deal.

A sign that a deep freeze could suddenly envelope Azerbaijani-Russian relations is seen in a short and terse statement issued by Aliyev’s office on December 29, announcing that Putin and the Azerbaijani leader had had a follow-up telephone conversation on the jet crash. The lack of any details beyond the fact that a call occurred suggests a hardening of positions by the Russian and Azerbaijani leaders.

“During the telephone conversation, the heads of state continued to discuss issues related to the crash,” was all the statement noted.