At a donor meeting today, Kyrgyzstan's leaders revised upward the amount they say is needed to get their economy back on track. The new magic number: $1.2 billion, or over 25 percent of Kyrgyzstan's GDP (roughly $4.7 billion in 2009, according to US government figures).
That's a lot, though the UN has backed up this figure as have the usual Bretton Woods supranational suspects, including the International Monetary Fund. Certainly the economic projections are disheartening. At the conference, provisional President Roza Otunbayeva said Kyrgyzstan's economy would shrink by 5 percent this year thanks to the recent bout of instability. Finance Minister Chorobek Imashev said the country faces a budget shortfall of $619 million.
Observers in Bishkek wonder how the country will handle such a huge cash infusion. As Inside the Cocoon noted yesterday, Kyrgyzstan isn't exactly a fiscally clean place. In fact, it's among the most corrupt countries on the planet.
And what about reconciliation initiatives involving Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in southern Kyrgyzstan? Government officials framed their appeal to the international community in a way that sounded as if Kyrgyzstan had just suffered a natural disaster, rather than inter-ethnic conflict.
In a joint World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank report prepared for the Kyrgyz government and obtained by EurasiaNet, the multilateral organizations suggested Bishkek request $1 billion, including $3 million for peace and tolerance building – i.e. reconciliation. International officials are defending themselves from criticism that such a reconciliation aid level is too small by arguing that a little can go a long way. Investment in reconciliation projects are far less capital intensive than rebuilding homes and providing food, they say.
The figure includes:
[...] immediate peace and tolerance training for local opinion-shapers (teachers, journalists, religious leaders, local officials, magistrates); human rights and protection training for security forces; public media campaigns on peace-building; community-level trainings on conflict management and conflict resolution; development of peace and tolerance curricula for schools; grants for arts and cultural activities promoting peace messages; forums for inter-ethnic dialogue and cooperation.
Haven't these things been tried in southern Kyrgyzstan before?
Thus far, it is unclear how much the international community will pledge and what strings will be attached. More importantly, will international aid be conditioned on Kyrgyzstan's willingness to start addressing the root causes of its enduring instability? Or will Bishkek be given a lump sum to rebuild and forget?
By the way, Kyrgyzstan isn't too interested in borrowing money, but instead is looking for cash handouts, Finance Minister Imashev announced. The troubled (opaque) banking sector and direct investment projects (ongoing threats of nationalization notwithstanding) are helpful places to park your money, Imashev assured the ambassadors and development experts.
David Trilling is Eurasianet’s managing editor.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.