Turkish President Abdullah Gul ended a two-day official visit to Baku on August 17 with the signing of a strategic partnership agreement, but the details remain a guessing game. Local analysts say that they are left to conclude that the trip, coming a few days before Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Armenia, was meant mostly for consultations.
At a post-meeting press conference, Gul and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev only broached the new Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Mutual Support in general terms. Calling the deal “historic,” Aliyev declared that the agreement defines “the future of [our] bilateral relations of brotherhood for decades.” Gul added that the Agreement will let the two countries reinforce and develop “our solidarity.”
Despite those descriptions, the text of the agreement has not yet been published – for reasons that remain unclear.
The possibility of joint foreign investments in third countries was one form of partnership Aliyev identified, but Azerbaijan’s ongoing conflict with Armenia over the breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh is an area where some observers looked more sharply for cooperation. Neither leader, however, had anything new to state on the topic to reporters.
Gul repeated earlier statements about the need to liberate Azerbaijan’s occupied territories; Aliyev, once again, predicted that the talks with Yerevan over Karabakh could end soon if “Armenia will take a constructive position and would respect international law.”
Baku political analyst Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas think-tank, believes that Gul’s visit served more for consultations on regional problems than for hammering out detailed plans of action on Karabakh or other issues. “And, of course, it served to show that earlier serious problems between Ankara and Baku are completely overcame,” Shahinoglu commented in reference to past differences with Turkey over Turkish reconciliation with Armenia and gas delivery to Europe.
Making that show might appear to come at a critical time for Baku. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is scheduled to travel to Yerevan on August 19 and to sign a 49-year lease agreement on a Russian base in Armenia. [For details, see the EurasiaNet.org archive.]
Neither Shahinoglu nor other Azerbaijani analysts interviewed by EurasiaNet.org believed, however, that any link exists between Medvedev’s upcoming visit and Gul’s appearance in Baku. The Russian leader is also expected to travel to Azerbaijan sometime in September.
Nonetheless, Gul and Aliyev most likely discussed what “adequate steps” Baku could take in response to Moscow’s proposed base deal with Armenia, Shahinoglu said.
“The deepening of military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey is now especially important for Baku. It does not mean that Turkey will deploy a military base in Azerbaijan soon. But some steps could be taken . . .” he elaborated.
Analyst Zardusht Alizade contends that Gul most likely pushed Aliyev for some form of agreement with Armenia as a means for moving ahead toward a resolution of the 22-year conflict.
But Rasim Musabekov, another Baku-based political analyst, believes that Baku maintained its objections to any reopening of Turkey’s border with Armenia as a way to advance such an agreement. While Aliyev may have expected some firm statement of support for Azerbaijan from Gul during the visit, “I did not hear anything new in the Turkish president’s public statements,” Musabekov said.
Aside from ”long-term peace in the Caucasus,” the Turkish presidency’s website named energy as another topic for discussion with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, but the issue vanished from public view during Gul’s trip.
Eliminating Azerbaijan’s visa requirements for Turkish citizens was another topic earlier named by Ankara. Turkey unilaterally scrapped its visa requirement for Azerbaijan in 2009 and expects a similar step from Baku. The issue received only a sliver more of attention at the press conference, however.
Responding to a Turkish reporter, Aliyev said that “this issue has to be resolved via internal technical procedures in Azerbaijan.” Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov named a similar problem in December 2009.
“It’s difficult to believe that Baku was not able to solve it during eight months,” Shahinoglu commented about the red-tape snags.
Rather, Shahinoglu believes that Iran is the reason for Baku’s hesitation. Earlier this year, Iran unilaterally eliminated its visa requirements for Azerbaijan. [For details, see the EurasiaNet.org archive.]
“If Baku does it with Turkey, then Iran will expect similar steps,” Shahinoglu noted. “But the Azerbaijani government does not want to have a visa-free regime with the Iranians.”
Does that mean a fresh tussle to come between the South Caucasus’ regional players? Don’t look for it in the near future. “Generally I do not think that this visit has seriously changed anything in current regional geopolitics,” Musabekov said.
Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based in Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society Institute-Azerbaijan.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.