As previously reported on this blog, the discovery of what could be very large reserves of natural gas off the coast of Cyprus has led to increasing tension between the Greek Cypriots, who would like to reap the benefits of these finds, and Turkey, which says Cyprus cannot take advantage of its good luck until negotiations with the Turkish Cypriots over the divided island's status are resolved. The fact that the Cypriot find abuts a large gas field discovered by Israel, whose relations with Turkey have worsened dramatically in recent years, and that the energy company drilling in the Cypriot waters is American- and Israeli-owned, only complicates the picture.
Considering the potential for conflict surrounding the gas issue and inability of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots to make any progress in their reunification talks, the International Crisis Group has released a new report that suggests ways to prevent things from spiraling out of control. From the ICG's report:
A paradigm shift is needed. The gas can drive the communities further apart and increase discords, or it can provide an opportunity for officials from all sides, including Turkey, to sit down and reach agreements on the exploitation and transportation of this new find....
....Cooperation on the exploitation of significant gas finds, which Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders agree are a common heritage, can help build confidence without prejudicing the eventual outcome of comprehensive talks. If the sides continue engaging in unilateral actions, tensions will rise, accidents will become more likely, and Turks and Greek Cypriots will be on course for a head-on collision in the eastern Mediterranean.
Among the report's recommendations -- perhaps unrealistic, considering how much difficulty the two sides on Cyprus have had in reaching any agreement so far -- are that the Greek and Turkish Cypriot governments create a bi-communal committee to discuss energy issues and ways to use any energy finds domestically, as well as for the Greek Cypriot administration to commit to sharing 20 percent of any new energy-related revenue with the Turkish Cypriot side.
Meanwhile, the changing political dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean appear to be creating new avenues for cooperation -- in this case between Israel and Greece. While Israel had for years conducted a joint naval exercise with Turkey and the United States called "Reliant Mermaid," Ankara scrapped the effort after downgrading its military and diplomatic ties in the wake of the Mavi Marmara incident. This year, though, the exercise has been revived, only with Greece taking the place of Turkey. Among the simulations practiced? The protection of offshore gas platforms.
UPDATE -- To further complicate the picture, Turkey's state oil company (TPAO) has just announced that it will begin drilling for oil in N. Cyprus at the end of the month. Reports Turkey's state-run Anatolian Agency:
TRNC Economy and Energy Minister Sunat Atun said that TPAO was planning to launch oil and natural gas drilling in TRNC at the end of this month after completing technical preparations.
"Drilling will be launched in one area now, but it could be broadened in case of any need," Atun told AA correspondent in an exclusive interview.
Atun said Turkish Energy & Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz would attend a ceremony that would take place to launch drilling.
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