In an indication that Azerbaijani President Heider Aliyev is more seriously ill than has been officially admitted, authorities in Baku have postponed festivities to mark the long-time leader's 80th birthday. The announcement came as the Azerbaijani prosecutor-general's office issued a warning to opposition newspapers, which have reported that Aliyev is near death.

Government officials continue to insist publicly that Aliyev's illness is not life-threatening. The head of the presidential administration, Ramiz Mekhtiyev, asserted in a May 6 television interview that there had been "considerable positive changes" in the president's condition since his May 3 evacuation to an elite military hospital in the Turkish capital of Ankara. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

However, as recently as May 5, administration officials had held out hope that Aliyev would return to Baku in time to participate in his 80th birthday celebration, to which other CIS heads of state, including Georgian leader Eduard Shevardnadze and Russian President Vladimir Putin, had been invited. On May 6, Mekhtiyev said that "guests who were to take part in the celebrations have been informed of the postponement." Mekhtiyev did not give any indication when the celebration would be rescheduled.

Opposition newspapers reported that the president's condition has sharply deteriorated in recent days. A May 6 report in the Hurriyyat daily implied that Turkish doctors considered Aliyev's illness to be terminal. Meanwhile, a Turan news agency report said that Aliyev was suffering from serious liver and kidney ailments.

Officials have characterized opposition media coverage of the Aliyev health crisis as "rumors and slander." Late on May 5, the editorial offices of one paper, Yeni Musavat, were ransacked in what editors portrayed as action designed to intimidate all opposition media. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On May 6, the prosecutor-general's office cautioned opposition media, including Yeni Musavat and Hurriyyat, that their reporting was libelous and risked violating the country's media legislation.

Meanwhile, in a development that could impact a possible political transition in Baku, a source told EurasiaNet that Prime Minister Artur Rasizade is expected to return to Azerbaijan on May 9. Rasizade has been in the United States recovering from eye surgery. Under the Azerbaijani constitution, the prime minister assumes interim executive authority in the event that the president dies in office or becomes incapacitated. However, most analysts believe Aliyev's preference is to pass presidential authority to his son Ilham.