An image of a bombed-out church in Ukraine sits next to a picture of a perfectly intact Georgian church on a large billboard cantilevered over one of Tbilisi’s main thoroughfares. “No to War, Choose Peace!” the billboard warns drivers and pedestrians that pass under it.

Banners that contrast the visuals of the war-ravaged Ukraine to peaceful Georgia hang all over Georgian cities and towns as the nation enters the homestretch to a fiercely fought parliamentary campaign. The message of the incumbent Georgian Dream party, which is responsible for the political ads, is simple: if you vote for anyone else but us, Georgia will become embroiled in warfare.

Many Georgians were outraged by the posters that they find preposterous and exploitative. “They might as well place pictures of their dead [Ukrainian] children next to our live children,” civil rights activist Giorgi Kikonishvili wrote on Facebook. Popular journalist Merab Metreveli described the posters as “amoral and nauseating.” The Ukrainian government also condemned the use of Ukraine’s suffering for campaign purposes in Georgia.

Political parties that are challenging Georgian Dream in the October 26 elections say the scare-mongering tactics are meant to distract voters’ attention from Georgia’s real issues, in particular democratic backsliding, growing isolation from the West and state-capture by the country’s richest man, Bidzina Ivanishvili. 

But the campaign, carefully crafted by Georgian Dream and its foreign PR advisers, does the trick on some voters. “God knows, I don’t like Georgian Dream as there is not a single, even remotely pleasant person left in there, but I will still vote for them because my main priority is peace for my country, my children and my grandchildren,” said a 60-year-old Neli, who runs a flower kiosk in Tbilisi and agreed to share her voting plans without giving her full name.

“These posters are ugly, but it is also true that they [Georgian Dream] have managed to maintain peace so far, which is more than you can say about any other government we’ve had,” she said. Chiming in on the conversation, a middle-aged male customer said: “I believe they will continue to maintain peace, not for our sake, no, but for their own sake and for the sake of Bidzina’s [Ivanishvili] millions.” 

The controversial ads could serve as an illustration of the wholesale political change that has occurred in Georgia in the shadow of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. The nation arrives at the 26 October polls unrecognizable from the Georgia of 12 years ago, when Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream came to power.

Today, all government institutions are in a thrall to Ivanishvili’s personal interests and those interests appear to be at odds with Georgia’s longtime goals of democracy-building and integration with the West. Recent adoption of repressive laws, harassment of civil society, belligerent rhetoric toward the West and threats to ban opposition parties have all but undone the years of work toward Georgia’s integration in the EU. Partnership with the United States – once Georgia’s top ally and supporter – hangs by the thread.

The parties challenging Georgian Dream say that the elections offer a crucial and perhaps last chance to step back from the spiral toward autocracy and international isolation, and the imminent geopolitical volte-face toward Vladimir Putin’s Russia. “Today, Georgian government is a part of the same threat that Russia poses to the civilized world,” said Ana Natsvlishvili, member of opposition party Lelo.

Georgian Dream denies all of this. The party insists that Georgia is still going to join the EU – the stars of the EU flag stubbornly adorn the party’s many campaign posters – but will do so on its own terms. “To Europe with Dignity,” as the campaign slogan specifies. Yet, at the same time, Georgian Dream makes moves that make Georgia incompatible with the EU membership.

The party offers homophobic laws and rhetoric, stokes fears of potential Western-provoked war with Russia, upbraids European ambassadors publicly, attacks democracy watchdogs and demands that the EU accept Georgia with its odd oligarchic rule. “Georgia-EU relations, unfortunately, are at a historic minimum,” EU Ambassador Paweł Herczyński said on October 22. “EU leaders have clearly stated that this is a result of the actions of the Georgian government.”

Ivanishvili is widely viewed as the guiding force of Georgian Dream and his ideas of how the world works is another can of worms. Ivanishvili is convinced that the West, especially the United States, has a hand in his personal financial troubles. As he fights in foreign courts to recover his assets from the troubled Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse, Ivanishvili keeps insinuating that Washington is somehow preventing him from getting his money back: denials from Washington cannot convince him otherwise.

Five days before the vote, Ivanishvili appeared on TV to voice his party’s main campaign points. He accused the West of fomenting conflict and gender confusion around the world, and described his opponents as lackeys of foreign powers. But he also launched into a long account of his legal battles in the courts of Switzerland, Singapore and Bermuda, listing various bureaucratic, financial and legal delays he had faced.

Without providing any evidence or any specific connection, he suggested the US authorities are somehow responsible for all these delays. In one instance, a financial expert hired by the defendant, Credit Suisse, took suspiciously long time to do his job, the billionaire said. “The expert spent two months making calculations that should’ve taken two hours, and he even took a vacation in the middle,” Ivanishvili said. “This is the reality and so do you still think that I’m imagining things?”

Critics variously ascribe Ivanishvili’s conspiracy claims to delusions, or a calculated play. But most agree that the nation and its future are now dependent on one rich man’s personal views and interests. “He is willing to sell Georgia’s geopolitical orientation for money,” said Giorgi Gakharia, former prime minister-turned-opposition leader.

Georgia’s democratic, liberal and pro-EU forces have coalesced around several opposition groups that intend to wrest a legislative majority away from Georgian Dream. The nation’s maverick, but ardently pro-Europe president Salome Zourabichvili has emerged as the effective leader of the opposition to Ivanishvili. Although not directly involved in the race, Zourabichvili has helped forge opposition’s unity around the goal of unseating Georgian Dream and getting Georgia back on track toward European integration.

“A new Georgia is coming,” Zourabichvili told a pro-EU demonstration in Tbilisi on October 20. “Today, here are Georgians who are joining Europe in a peaceful, dignified and Georgian way,” she told a cheering crowd.

The crowd at the demonstration was massive, illustrating Georgia’s strong desire to remove Ivanishvili from power. But the outcome of the election remains up in the air. Georgian Dream has its own support base, and also holds considerable sway over public-sector employees across Georgia. The party may still earn more seats than any individual opposition group, but the opposition parties can coalesce and, through a shared majority of votes, exclude Georgian Dream from governance. 

The wild card in this election is whether voting will be deemed free and fair. Fears of vote manipulation and reluctance to accept results are very much in the air.