Eurasianet

The Israel factor looms large for Tehran.

Unlike in Arab nations that have relations with Israel, there is no strong domestic pressure in Azerbaijan to take a harder line against the Jewish state.

Is Azerbaijan promoting Iranian separatism? Is Iran harboring Azerbaijani Islamists?

The short-term crisis between the two neighbors has dissipated. But in the longer term, relations have gotten a lot more complicated.

The election of a hardliner could augur a more security-oriented approach by Tehran toward Armenia and Azerbaijan.

From Azerbaijan’s perspective, there are perils to either the reelection of the incumbent prime minister or the return to power of his main rival, former president Robert Kocharyan.

Turkey’s president appears to be positioning himself as a protector of all Turks, including Azerbaijani Turks in Iran.

Iran sees that to safeguard its own interests, it needs a more pro-active South Caucasus policy.

A facile and naïve plan being discussed in Washington risks backfiring on Iran’s minority Christians.

The longer the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict drags on, the chances rise that Iran will play a more assertive role.