Political Infighting in Iran Could Prompt Shift on Nuclear Stance
Political infighting in Iran could prompt a change in the country's nuclear negotiating stance. Any sign of increased flexibility could become apparent when the country's lead nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, next meets with the European Union's high representative for common foreign and security policy, Javier Solana.
During a September 20 phone conversation, Larijani and Solana agreed to schedule a meeting for next week, the official IRNA news agency reported. There had been speculation that Larijani might meet Solana in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, but Larijani abruptly changed his travel plans. Larijani and Solana have conducted a running dialogue on Iran's reaction to an international incentive package, dubbed the 5-plus-1 plan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
According to a UN source, an internal policy debate on Iran's negotiating course prompted Larijani to put off traveling to New York. On September 20, he visited Syria, IRNA reported. In recent weeks, signs of a split among leading Iranian political factions have surfaced. Some Iranian leaders, while determined to defend the country's right to conduct nuclear research, appear to have grown disenchanted with the confrontational tactics employed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his neo-conservative backers. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. These leaders may now be trying to force an adjustment in Iran's negotiating stance.
"Larijani was granted his visa to travel to New York City last week, but he needed more time to be able to negotiate with top clerics in Iran and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei," the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"It seems some of the Iranian hardliners are now asking Larijani to show more flexibility," the diplomat added. Some Iranian leaders evidently favor adopting a temporary moratorium on nuclear research. Such a move would be aimed at enticing the United States to join the EU in holding direct talks with Tehran on the issue. "This is a good offer for Iran and it should not want to avoid that," the diplomat said.
On September 19, American officials warned Iran that unless it unilaterally suspended uranium enrichment, it would one again face the threat of UN Security Council-imposed economic sanctions. US leaders have stated repeatedly that they will not directly engage Iranian officials in talks until Washington can verify that Tehran has suspended enrichment operations.
In his General Assembly speech, US President George W. Bush called on Iran to "abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions" and argued that the Ahmadinejad administration was acting against Iranian citizens' best interests. "Your rulers have chosen to deny you liberty and to use your nation's resources to front terrorism, fuel extremism and pursue nuclear weapons," the US president said. "We're working toward a diplomatic solution to this crisis and as we do we look toward the day when you can live in freedom and America and Iran can be good friends."
Hours later, during his own General Assembly address, Ahmadinejad accused the United States and the United Kingdom of trying to impose their collective will on the rest of the international community. "If they [the United States and United Kingdom] have differences with a nation or state, they drag it to the Security Council, and, as claimants, arrogate to themselves simultaneously the roles of prosecutor, judge and executioner," he said. "Is this a just order?"
During the General Assembly, US officials have gone to great lengths to avoid Ahmadinejad and other members of the Iranian delegation, even in the hallways of the United Nations. Bush did not attend Ahmadinejad's address, while the Iranian leader did not attend the morning session and the traditional lunch at the UN. When I asked Ahmadinejad; "If by accident you run into President Bush in the hallway, will you extend your hand to him?" The Iranian president smiled and replied, "I will answer this question at my press conference on Thursday morning."
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard has reported from Afghanistan and Iran for EurasiaNet.
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