President Heidar Aliyev's prolonged illness is raising the possibility of political confrontation in Azerbaijan in the near future. Already, authorities have stepped up measures designed to intimidate opposition politicians and journalists. There are indications that top administration officials are willing to explore even more drastic measures – including the postponement of the upcoming presidential election – in order to retain power.

Aliyev, who has no been heard from or seen in three weeks, is believed to be in serious condition in a Turkish military hospital. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Publicly, those in Aliyev's inner circle insist that the president remains at the helm of government and is planning to return to Azerbaijan soon. In addition, Aliyev remains the governing New Azerbaijan Party's candidate in the upcoming October 15 presidential election. "He is feeling fine," Ilham Aliyev, the president's son, said July 28. "Mr. President is supervising all [state] affairs."

Opposition media continue to insist that the president's condition is terminal. There have even been reports that Aliyev may already be dead. "Ilham Aliyev said the president controls the country. Of course, everybody knows that he was bluffing," said a commentary in the opposition newspaper Hurriyyat on July 29. "Hospitals are not places for those who feel fine.