Turkey's bid to join the European Union appears caught in a vicious cycle. As EU support for Turkish membership falters, the influence of Euro-skeptics in Ankara is rising. A recent controversy over the postponement of an academic conference has helped focus attention on the resurgence of Turkey's EU detractors.

EU leaders decided to leave the expansion issue off the agenda of this week's EU summit in Brussels. The move followed the rejection of the proposed EU constitution by French and Dutch voters. Some experts linked the "no" votes to the expansion issue, and EU foreign ministers admitted that doubt now surrounds Turkey's accession prospects. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkish accession talks are slated to begin in October.

The growing doubts in Europe concerning expansion seem to have emboldened opponents EU integration within Turkey's political class. These Euro-skeptics have long been suspicious of measures undertaken by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government to satisfy EU membership criteria. In late May, just days before the French referendum on the EU constitution, the anti-EU faction in Turkey flexed its political muscle, forcing the postponement of an academic conference that was to examine the complexities of Turkey's relationship with neighboring Armenia.

The conference entitled "The Ottoman Armenians during the Era of Ottoman Decline" was to be sponsored by three leading Istanbul universities – Bosphorus, Sabanci and Bilgi. On May 24, the day before the conference was to open, organizers called it off. A joint statement issued by conference organizers and participants cited an aggressive campaign of "pressure, threats and slander" as the reason for the postponement.

Turkish-Armenian relations have long been dominated by the events of 1915-23, when up to 1.5 million Armenian died amid the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Armenian officials insist that the slaughter of Armenians constituted genocide. Turkish officials deny the genocide claim, saying the mass deaths were mainly caused by civil strife that accompanied World War I and its aftermath.

Conference organizers, according to a May 17 press release, had sought to air a variety of views about "what happened before, during and after 1915." The intent, they added, was to understand an extremely complex, controversial and emotionally-charged historical issue that "during the last years has become trapped and increasingly politicized" by the official Armenian and Turkish positions.

"The emergence of different, critical and alternative voices ... would be, once again, to the utmost benefit of Turkey," the press release stated. "Today, 90 years after the tragic 1915 incidents, it's time for Turkey's people of science and thought to jointly raise their voices differing from the official thesis."

It was precisely this aspect of the conference that appeared to arouse the suspicion of what the Turks call the "deep state" – the entrenched statist-nationalist establishment comprising conservative members of Turkey's state bureaucracy, judiciary and military. Such an open manifestation of intellectual dissent prompted an immediate and forceful response from leading representatives of "deep state" thinking.

Speaking in parliament on May 24, Justice Minister Cemil Cicek angrily asserted that holding the conference would be tantamount to stabbing Turkey in the back. He adding grimly; "I wish I had not renounced my authority to open criminal cases as justice minister." Cicek went on to say that at a time when the entire country was campaigning to show that Armenian genocide allegations were false, the organization of a forum at which people supporting the Armenian view could air their opinions constituted a violation of national interests.

Opposition lawmakers from the Republican People's Party (CHP) were even more aggressive in their remarks with Sukru Elekdag, a former Turkish ambassador to the United States, claming the conference's aim was to disseminate Armenian propaganda. He accused the potential academic participants of high treason.

The decision to postpone the conference caused an outcry in Turkey and dismayed foreign diplomats, who said the move to suppress dissenting views on sensitive historical issues raised questions about Turkey's commitment to academic freedom.

The controversy also proved embarrassing for Erdogan's government. As part of an effort to promote a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, Erdogan had proposed just two months ago the formation of a joint Turkish-Armenian commission of historians to examine the complex relationship between the two peoples. Now, political analysts say, the ability of the Erdogan's government to promote a thaw in bilateral relations has been compromised. [For addition information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Erdogan disavowed Cicek's remarks, saying that the justice minister spoke in his "personal capacity." But such rhetoric was insufficient to repair the damage already done. "Cicek's devastating remarks are a disservice to the government's recast efforts on the Armenian issue," one foreign diplomat told the Turkish Daily News. In addition, the justice minister's comments could "kill support for Turkey's EU bid," the diplomat added.

Although the Armenian genocide issue is not specifically a subject of the planned EU-Turkish accession negotiations, Ankara will likely have to address the matter as it proceeds with its EU membership bid, if only because Brussels demands that Turkey normalize ties with Armenia. Currently the two countries don't have diplomatic relations and Turkey continues to maintain an economic blockade against Armenia, insisting that Yerevan withdraw its troops from the occupied Azerbaijani territory. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Meanwhile, Armenian official are lobbying EU member states to raise the issue of the 1915-1923 atrocities in its membership negotiations with Turkey.

The backlash against the conference postponement has been considerable and has raised hopes among academics about the future of democratization efforts in Turkey. "What we are witnessing here is the state of Turkish democracy," said Halil Berktay, a historian at Sabanci University who had planned to attend the conference. "The matter is not finished yet."

Some 110 academics from Bosphorus University condemned the postponement and issued a joint statement calling for the conference to be held as soon as possible. The well-respected Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) also criticized the postponement, saying in a statement that the "deep state's" actions and threats were not compatible with democratic norms. "The public should know that TESEV, in this process, would be on the side of our universities and academic freedom," the think-tank's statement said.

In addition, Turkish media reported that two local NGOs – the Izmir Contemporary Attorneys' Association and the Izmir Human Rights Association – filed charges with the Supreme Court of Appeals against Justice Minister Cicek, claiming he had violated several articles of the Turkish Constitution.

Political analysts caution that academics and NGO activists face long odds in their struggle to open up the "deep state." The Turkish military, which continues to wield enormous influence over political developments, appears opposed to a public discussion of sensitive historical issues. In recent public comments, a top military commander, Gen. Hursit Tolon, was dismissive of those trying to revise the established version of events. He said patriotic Turks should pay no attention to "those who are trying to blacken Turkish history with baseless and biased information," the Anatolia news agency reported.