Preliminary Election Results in Kyrgyzstan Heighten Uncertainty Surrounding Presidents Future
International observers, operating under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said the February 27 election "fell short" of meeting global standards for a free and fair vote. Observers noted that this vote was more competitive than previous Kyrgyzstani elections, adding that balloting occurred in a "calm and orderly atmosphere." The OSCE observation mission also pointed to increased transparency in the ballot-counting process. Nevertheless, the results were tainted by the government's efforts during the campaign to manipulate public opinion and to restrict voting options.
"Several shortcomings during the pre-election campaign affected the overall conduct of the elections," an OSCE preliminary assessment said. "Repeated warnings by high officials of the dangers of civil war, as well as associating the opposition with extremism had a negative effect." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, the government faced criticism from both domestic opposition leaders and the international community over attempts to restrict media coverage of the campaign.
"The interpretation of the election code was at times unduly restrictive, and the de-registration of candidates was inconsistent, causing significant public protests," the statement added. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Official efforts to influence the campaign did not immediately achieve the government's apparent primary aim -- producing a pliant parliament for Akayev. Observers had noted during the run-up to the vote that an abundance of the president's friends and relatives were running for parliamentary seats. While the president's son, Aydar, won his constituency outright, Akayev's daughter, Bermet, was forced into a run-off in her central Bishkek election district. Bermet's inability to win a majority in the first round surprised some political observers in Bishkek, given that election officials had excluded a prominent potential rival, former Foreign Minister Rosa Otunbayeva, from running in the same district. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The campaign period was marked by opposition protests, most of them seeking to overturn decisions barring candidates from running in local election districts. In one such constituency -- encompassing the Kochkor Region in Naryn Province, where protesters blocked a highway in an unsuccessful effort to get local favorites re-instated -- election officials declared the voting results invalid. According to the Kabar news agency, 62 percent of the electorate in the Kochkor Region cast ballots "against all." Meanwhile, protests have occurred in several southern districts, with discontented voters demanding recounts.
Overall, the February 27 vote determined only 31 of the 75 seats in the reconfigured Kyrgyzstani parliament, which is being streamlined from a bicameral legislature into a unicameral chamber, Kabar reported. The majority of those already elected are nominally independent, although many are considered politically friendly to the president, analysts say. It remains unlikely that the opposition will enjoy a strong presence in the next parliament, most observers add.
The lack of a clear result damages Akayev's image, raising doubts among those in Kyrgyzstan's political and economic elite that the president remains in charge of the political process. Such doubts could have profound ramifications for Kyrgyzstan's near-term political future.
Indeed, the largest question raised by the parliament's preliminary results concerns Akayev's own political future. Kyrgyzstan's presidential vote is scheduled for October, and the country's constitution, as currently interpreted, bars Akayev from seeking re-election. Some analysts said prior to the parliamentary balloting that the president hoped to secure a solid legislative majority, paving the way either for a referendum on altering the constitution to enable another Akayev presidential term, or helping him transfer power to a hand-picked successor. The muddled February 27 election results would seem to complicate Akayev's ability to realize either aim.
Compounding the president's difficulties, the OSCE observer mission is pressing the Kyrgyz government to make policy changes that could potentially open up the March 13 run-off round. "We call on them to halt the de-registration of candidates on minor technical grounds, to refrain from the interference with media, and not to make further inflammatory statements, accusing the opposition of extremism," the OSCE statement quoted, Ambassador Lubomir Kopaj, the head of the organization's long-term mission in Bishkek, as saying.
Akayev will face perhaps the toughest political challenge of his career over the next two weeks, as he seeks to demonstrate that he remains capable of implementing his political agenda. Though their candidates did not do well, the country's fractious opposition groups may feel energized by Akayev's failure to produce a convincing election victory in the first round. Accordingly, opposition protests and other activities could intensify in the coming weeks.
More importantly for the president, however, he could find it difficult to keep Kyrgyzstan's political establishment in line. If the president is deemed to be losing his grip on power, many of those who now nominally supporting Akayev may feel inclined to abandon the incumbent. If doubts about Akayev's authority grow, the ruling establishment could soon experience infighting, as those viewing themselves as potential Akayev successors jockey to position themselves for the presidential election.
Given the political passions exhibited during the parliamentary campaign, any breakdown of the ruling establishment's cohesion could leave Kyrgyzstan increasingly vulnerable to political unrest. The preliminary parliamentary election results indicate that Kyrgyzstan will likely not replicate the experience of Ukraine and Georgia where rigged elections sparked popular protests that brought opposition leaders to power. Still, it appears increasingly likely that Kyrgyzstan is facing the first presidential transition in post-Soviet Central Asia one with an uncertain outcome.
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