Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev made a television appearance April 22 in an effort discourage speculation about the state of his health, a day after suffering from apparent chest pains during a speech to military cadets. Nevertheless, the incident is prompting renewed speculation about the political succession process in Azerbaijan.

Long reported to be in frail health [for additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive], the 79-year-old Aliyev has been preparing for a re-election campaign ahead of presidential elections in October. Prior to the April 21 incident – in which Aliyev first faltered and then collapsed during a speech broadcast on live television – the president had seemed virtually assured of winning reelection. It may still be the case that Aliyev runs in, and wins the election. However, political observers are now paying greater attention than ever to the possibility of a political transition in Azerbaijan.

At present, in the event of Aliyev's sudden incapacitation or death, Prime Minister Artur Rasizade would assume presidential powers on an interim basis. Rasizade reportedly flew to the United States late on April 21 in a hastily arranged trip that had not been previously announced. The prime minister's itinerary remained unclear. Rasizade is widely considered a politically weak prime minister. If he were to assume the presidency, many experts believe he would serve in a caretaker capacity.

Over the medium term, the president's most likely successor remains Aliyev's son, Ilham, who currently serves as first vice president of SOCAR, the state oil company, and also as vice-chairman of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP). [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

One of the amendments to the Azerbaijani constitution approved in a controversial referendum in August 2002 concerned the presidential succession process. The constitution now stipulates that the president's duties are passed on to the prime minister if the chief executive becomes incapacitated or dies in office. Many experts believe that, in the coming months, Aliyev may try to name Ilham as prime minister, thereby giving his son access to the instruments of power needed to ensure his election as the next president.

Should the elder Aliyev leave the political stage in the coming months, the YAP may nominate Ilham as its candidate for the presidential election. However, such a prospect reportedly is not universally supported by the YAP leadership. Some officials fear that Ilham Aliyev's rise to power could result in their own dismissals.

Dubbed "conservatives" by the younger Aliyev's supporters, these officials have reportedly made tentative approaches to unidentified opposition figures, such as former parliamentary speaker Rasul Guliyev, with a view to preventing Ilham Aliyev from becoming president.

Internal maneuverings within the YAP are likely to exert the greatest influence over a potential presidential succession process, many experts believe. Some add that opposition parties are at present too weak and divided to pose much of a threat at the ballot box to the YAP's hold on power. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].