“Never complain, never explain” is a PR strategy closely linked to the British royal family. What might be labeled the Putin corollary to that time-tested maxim is: “never take the blame.”

Russian leader Vladimir Putin extended an apology on December 28 to his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev “for a tragic incident in Russian airspace,” without acknowledging any Russian role in causing a commercial Azerbaijan Airlines flight to crash in Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 individuals aboard. Preliminary results of the ongoing investigation into the tragedy point to an accidental shootdown by Russian air defense forces.

Not-so-subtle differences in the statements issued by the Kremlin and Aliyev’s presidential office about their December 28 conversation indicate that Putin’s apology will not be enough to assuage Azerbaijan’s anger over the incident. 

Putin’s statement mentions that at the time of the incident, several Russian cities in the North Caucasus, including Grozny, the doomed Azerbaijani flight’s intended destination, were under attack by “Ukrainian combat drones, and Russian air defense equipment repelled these attacks.” Aliyev’s statement goes further to make a clear connection between Russian air defense activity and the Azerbaijani airliner crash.

The Azerbaijan Airlines jet, “being in Russian airspace, was subjected to external physical and technical impact from the outside and completely lost control, [and] was directed to the Kazakh city of Aktau,” Aliyev statement emphasizes.

“There are numerous holes in the plane’s fuselage; passengers and crew members, while still in the air, were injured by foreign particles that penetrated the fuselage and entered the plane’s cabin,” the statement adds, intimating that anti-aircraft flak caused the damage and injuries. 

Accepting responsibility for tragic mistakes involving downed airliners has never been part of the Kremlin’s playbook, long pre-dating Putin’s tenure in power. In 1983, Soviet officials initially denied shooting down a Korean Airlines jumbo jet over the Sea of Okhotsk. Then, when presented with incontrovertible evidence of Russian responsibility, the Kremlin claimed that the plane was on a spy mission. 

Russia likewise obfuscated about its role in the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine in 2014. An international investigation eventually determined a mobile anti-aircraft system based in the Russian city of Kursk fired the missile that brought down the jetliner.

The fact that there are multiple survivors of the Azerbaijan airlines crash who can give testimony makes it much harder in this instance for the Kremlin to repeat its Malaysian Airliner tragedy strategy of advancing multiple alternative theories to muddy the news narrative.

In addition, the black boxes from the crashed jet have been recovered. Thus, additional information about what precisely happened in the sky over Grozny, and why the stricken airliner had to cross the Caspian Sea to attempt a crash landing, is expected to come out.

Aliyev has flatly rejected a proposal put forward by Russian and Kazakh officials for a special commission under the auspices of the Commonwealth of Independent States to oversee the crash investigation. Azerbaijani media has suggested Russia is striving to whitewash the investigation and prevent a full picture of the crash circumstances from coming out.

“Recent developments reveal Russia’s attempts to minimize reputational damage,” stated a commentary published by the government-friendly outlet Aze.media.

Aliyev seems determined to hold Russia accountable for its actions. He is insisting on an international and transparent investigation, according to his presidential statement. “Information will be regularly provided to the public,” it notes.