As reports surface of American-led soldiers hunting al Qaeda holdouts in Pakistan, the United Nations Security Council has heard a warning that citizens in Afghanistan may face starvation by the end of May. While the short term and immediate needs of the Afghan people and their governing Interim Authority are being met, a new UN report says, longer-term development projects are moving at a dangerously slow pace. And the lack of emergency funds for food may make that pace even slower, UN officials warned.

This unhealthy dynamic begins with slow disbursements, according to Kieran Prendergast, the UN's Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs. In an April 25 update of the political and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, Prendergast told the Security Council that reconstruction funds pledged at a January ministerial meeting in Tokyo have been "extremely slow to arrive." He added that although it was understandable that donors might wait for greater stability before committing to long-term projects, the interim government and agencies supporting it needed some cash with which to work. "We must also recognize that implementing rehabilitation and reconstruction projects will greatly help bring about that stability," Prendergast said.

The interim government approved some $1.1 billion worth of pledges for reconstruction support in February. Many countries announced these pledges in Tokyo. But a tour in mid April revealed that only $160 million worth of initial reconstruction work has started, according to Julia Taft, Assistant Administrator and Director of the United Nations Development Program's Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery.

This situation might worry military planners as well. Although Taft reported no immediate danger, the greater-than-expected influx of refugees from Pakistan and a shortfall in pledges to the UN's World Food Program could cause trouble in the weeks before the Loya Jirga, a grand legislative council due to take place in Kabul from June 10 to June 16. [For more information, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "If you talk about the end of May, June, yes there is a problem, Taft said. "Most of the projects have been quantified and identified and it's just a question now for the donors to actually say yes, they'll put the money on the line." Taft was careful not to fault the international donor community, whom she said is meeting humanitarian needs. But she added that getting funds to start as-yet-unproven projects is difficult.

These projects may overlap with established concerns about security. While there are humanitarian programs underway throughout the country, for instance, Taft noted that the new reconstruction projects are starting only within a 50-kilometer perimeter of Kabul, mainly because of security threats outside the capital area. Taft advised nations to try "some more creative ways of looking at the security situation," suggesting that rebuilding roads would improve security. She also said reconstruction money would facilitate "day trips" outside Kabul by the International Security Assistance Force, which thus far has not deployed farther out into the country. [For more information, see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Reconstruction has started to some degree. One early success Taft cited was a grant of $3 million from Japan to start a Rapid Impact Employment Program. The seed money will pay 12,000 ex-combatants and other Afghans in Kabul $2 a day to remove rubble, plant trees and help rebuild schools and other facilities. Funding from the United States and Italy is also expected, Taft said. But projects of this scale will probably not be able to address the dramatic growth in Afghanistan's refugee community.

Taft's warning follows an appeal from UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Ruud Lubbers for more money to support the return of more than 300,000 refugees from Pakistan since March 1. UNHCR, which had expected 400,000 refugees to return from Pakistan by the end of the year, has so far received only $160 million of the $271 million it says it needs. UNHCR is also speeding up efforts to help internally displaced Afghans return to Shaidan district from the city of Bamiyan. The agency expects up to 7500 such people to return by the end of April.

The shortfall in food dollars may thwart reconstruction efforts. The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) has warned that it might have to stop or slow down several projects in Afghanistan if donors do not provide more cash to assist millions of Afghans until the next harvest in July. WFP estimates that it will need $285 million and a total of 544,000 tons of food to help feed nine million Afghans. So far, the food aid agency has received only $63.9 million, almost all from the United States. "The support we have received so far will only be enough to help our beneficiaries for a couple of months," WFP Afghanistan Country Director Burkard Oberle said. "There is a lot of goodwill out there but we need it translated into cash and food. We cannot afford to lose more time."

At the meeting in Tokyo in January, the international community pledged $4.3 billion over a 30-month period until a permanent government is elected. Out of that, $1.8 billion was slated for first-year activities, including everything from government and civil service operations to humanitarian and reconstruction needs.