Dozens of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have been allowed to leave the blockaded region over the past two days, triggering speculation about a possible deal.
The arrest sets a chilling precedent, as most of the adult male population of the region has either fought against Azerbaijan or served in the local army, which Baku calls an "illegal armed formation."
Azerbaijan seems happy with the EU-mediated track of negotiations with Armenia while seeing Russia as a barrier on the path to integrating Nagorno-Karabakh.
The de facto president and other officials are camped out in tents in Stepanakert's central square demanding that Armenia and Russia take action to end Azerbaijan's blockade.
Azerbaijan shut down all traffic between Nagorno-Karabakh and the outside world on June 15, exacerbating shortages and preventing patients from seeking urgent medical care.
Azerbaijan, which had been pressing hard for a resolution, has eased off following the Turkish elections and their establishment of a border post in Karabakh.
Roughly a month after Azerbaijan installed a border post on the Lachin corridor, a small but growing number of Karabakh Armenians are using the route. But there is still strong social pressure against doing so.
The self-proclaimed environmental activists, who blocked the key road to Nagorno-Karabakh for nearly 140 days, now complain that their government is neglecting them.
Aliyev's threatening rhetoric makes clear his government will ignore exhortations to sit down for talks with representatives of the entity he considers anathema to Azerbaijan.
The region's already meager electricity generation capacity is in jeopardy, and an "environmental disaster" could be at hand, the local de facto authorities say.
Armenia has long been on a trajectory of recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but the prime minister's explicit statement still triggered shock and outrage.
Yerevan and Baku have fundamental disagreements about how the rights and security of Karabakh’s Armenian population should be guaranteed. Observers are pessimistic that they can be bridged.
Baku has presented the border crossing as a demonstration of how Karabakh Armenians can live peacefully under Azerbaijani rule. But no one is using it.
Azerbaijan is seeking to equate the rights of the Azerbaijanis who were displaced from Armenia to those of Karabakh Armenians. Yerevan isn't having it.