The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process is going sideways, with belligerent rhetoric displacing hopes that a lasting settlement is within reach.

Just over four months ago, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev instructed their respective governments to fast track negotiations. At that time, the two leaders acknowledged that most of the provisions of a draft peace pact had been settled. But now, the two states seem to be thinking more about renewed war, rather than peace.

Aliyev has stoked fears about renewed conflict by airing a territorial claim against Armenia centering on the strip of Armenian territory separating Azerbaijan proper from the Nakhchivan exclave, territory that he described as “West Zangezur.”

The territory in question was “Azerbaijani land that was deliberately transferred to Armenia [during the early Soviet era] in order to make life difficult for Azerbaijanis,” Aliyev stated on March 5 during a visit to Turkey. “This injustice, which has lasted for more than a hundred years, has had an extremely negative impact on our compatriots living in Nakhchivan.”

State-controlled media outlets have followed Aliyev’s lead, posting saber-rattling stories stating that sooner or later Azerbaijanis will resettle in “West Zangezur.” A lengthy historical analysis published by the Trend news agency sought to show that under the Russian Empire the land in question was considered part of Azerbaijan. “The Russian tsars called the lands on which today’s Armenia is located nothing other than Azerbaijan!” the commentary’s author, Fuad Akhundov, wrote.

The menacing language emanating from Baku may be part of a negotiating ploy, given that a major remaining sticking point in the peace treaty negotiations is reportedly the status of a land connection traversing Armenian territory to connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. 

Whatever the motivation for Azerbaijani rhetoric, the Armenian government is not responding passively. On March 6, Pashinyan’s government approved a measure to call up reservists for a 10-week period of “training,” starting April 1. A report distributed by the ArmInfo news agency noted that the reservists would, “if necessary, be available for combat duty.”

During peace treaty negotiations, Baku has sought what amounts to extraterritorial rights on the proposed land connection, dubbed the Zangezur Corridor, connecting Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. As peace talks ground to a halt in early 2025, Pashinyan attempted to revive negotiations by signaling a willingness to explore an arrangement that would give Azerbaijani vehicles and citizens unspecified travel privileges along the corridor. But so far, Armenia has refused to budge on the question of Azerbaijani extraterritorial rights.

In an article penned by Pashinyan and published by the official state news agency, the prime minister reiterated that Armenian sovereignty over the Zangezur Corridor is not up for negotiation. “Armenia has never undertaken any obligation, written or oral, or agreed or even hinted that it might agree to any limitation of its sovereignty, jurisdiction, or territorial integrity, including … the issue of communication from western Azerbaijan to the NakhchivanAutonomous Republic via the territory of the Republic of Armenia,” Pashinyan wrote.

The Zangezur Corridor issue involves broader geopolitical issues as well. Iran has steadfastly opposed the creation of a Zangezur land route, instead pressuring Azerbaijan to use a road and rail connection to Nakhchivan that traverses Iranian territory. Tehran fears that the establishment of a Zangezur Corridor would cut Iranian trade access to Armenia.

At the same time, Russia favors the Zangezur option: under a 2020 agreement, Russia would serve as the corridor’s security guarantor. Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed jointly last summer to set aside the Zangezur issue, to be resolved separately from a peace agreement, thus apparently icing Russia out of any peacekeeping role. Azerbaijan’s decision in January to place Zangezur back on the peace process agenda gave new life to the possibility that Russia could establish a peacekeeping presence in the region.

Meanwhile, on March 5, Aliyev and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan inaugurated a gas pipeline connecting Nakhchivan and Turkey, thus easing the exclave’s economic isolation.