A Russian diplomatic source reports that Moscow's foreign policy establishment has misgivings about the newly minted Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In particular, Uzbekistan's inclusion in the organization is viewed by many Russian policy makers with ambivalence. They see a risk that Tashkent's mercurial leadership can do more to complicate, rather than clarify Central Asia's security picture.

Leaders from the six member states – China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan -- met June 14-15 in China to formally transform the so-called Shanghai Five into the SCO. At the same meeting, Uzbekistan became a full-fledged member of the group, which aims to promote greater regional economic and security cooperation. At the summit, leaders spoke of the need to jointly address the threat posed by radical Islam, especially the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan's (IMU) insurgency. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Uzbekistan has long posed a dilemma for Russian geopolitical designs in Central Asia. Tashkent has steered an independent course, resisting pressure from Moscow to adhere to Kremlin policy, and even withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty in 1998. Since the IMU's first incursions two summers ago, Russia has sought to get Uzbekistan more involved in multilateral security initiatives, both to provide a more effective response to Islamic radicalism and to bolster Moscow's regional influence.

When the Shanghai Five began to take shape in 1996-97, Russia viewed it as a potentially effective method to manage Central Asian geopolitical developments, the diplomatic source says. Russian policy makers, in effect, hoped the organization would help them retain a traditional level of influence over Central Asian events. From the start, however, Central Asian member states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – were reluctant to rely on Russia's guidance. The three Central Asian states, for example, reached border delimitation agreements with China during the late 1990s, without ever consulting with Moscow.

Despite their frustrations, Russian officials decided to proceed with the formal transformation into the SCO. However, the aspirations of the Russian establishment now appear more limited – with some policy-makers viewing the SCO as largely an alliance of convenience with the limited aim of containing Islamic radicalism. Even in this sphere, Russia is concerned that Uzbekistan's inclusion in the organization has the potential to create headaches.

Comments made by Uzbek President Islam Karimov seemed to underscore Russian worries. In a report broadcast on Uzbek television on June 16, Karimov stated clearly that he would not take orders from Moscow, expressing concerns of his own that Russia might try to manipulate the SCO to mount a campaign against US strategic initiatives, such as NATO expansion and a missile defense shield.

"I have put my signature under ideas expressed in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization declaration.