Russia Sends Mixed Signals as Base Withdrawal Deadline Looms in Georgia
Russian troops are scheduled to withdraw from two of their four military bases in Georgia by July 1, but it remains uncertain whether Moscow will meet the deadline. What seems more certain is that Moscow and Tbilisi will continue to wrangle over the issue of military bases for the foreseeable future. Bilateral talks on a complete Russian military withdrawal from Georgia have been marked by acrimony. Kremlin officials have repeatedly criticized Tbilisi's efforts to bolster security along Georgia's border with the renegade Russian region of Chechnya, and have exerted considerable pressure on Georgia to permit at least some Russian troops to remain in Georgia. The outcome of the negotiations may have important security ramifications in the Caucasus.
Russia has sent mixed signals about the looming troop withdrawal deadline. The transfer of the Russian base at Vaziani, in the suburbs of Tbilisi, began on June 22, and appears to be proceeding on schedule. The military airbase at Vaziani is expected to be transferred to Georgia on June 28. However, Russian military officials have been hesitant when discussing the withdrawal from the base in Gudauta, located in the separatist region of Abkhazia. The local Russian commander, Colonel-General Georgi Shpak, said on June 23 that the troops at Gudauta may not be able to withdraw until the end of the summer, claiming Georgia is unable to guarantee that Russian military equipment can be safely removed from the region. He also cited a blockade of the base being conducted by Abkhaz and local Russians who want the troops to stay.
Shpak also suggested the Russian withdrawal was ultimately dependent on the ability of Georgian and Abkhaz leaders to agree on a political settlement on the region's status. Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement June 22 that reaffirmed that Moscow would meet the July 1 deadline, as specified in an agreement reached at the OSCE Summit in 1999 in Istanbul.
Russian troops completed the withdrawal of most heavy weapons, including vehicles and artillery, from Vaziani on April 23. Russia is now preparing residential and military buildings, as well as the military airport, for the hand-over to Georgia. Some Georgian media reports have charged Russian soldiers with willfully destroying property on the base, but Russian military leaders deny this. Some of the departing Russian troops will be reassigned to bases in Armenia, while others will return to Russia.
Russian officials introduced an additional element of rancor into the withdrawal process by seeking to transport departing troops back to Russia via Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, which borders Chechnya, and which Moscow asserts is a base of operations for Chechen militants fighting Moscow's authority. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze vigorously opposed Russia's plan. Shevardnadze denied that Chechen militants were utilizing the Pankisi Gorge. He also warned that if Russia attempted to conduct armed operations in the area, such action could embroil Georgia in the Chechen conflict, and cause "huge bloodshed."
Still to be resolved is a withdrawal timetable for the two remaining Russian bases in Georgia in Batumi, in the Ajarian autonomous region, and in Akhalkalaki, located in an area with a heavy concentration of ethnic Armenian inhabitants. During the seventh round of base negotiations June 22, Georgian and Russian officials failed to agree on a timetable. Russia is seeking to conduct the withdrawal over a period of 13-14 years, saying it lacks resources to act faster. Georgia wants the bases transferred within three years, although Shevardnadze said at a June 25 news conference that Russia could take up to five years to complete the base withdrawals.
How the dispute is resolved could have significant geopolitical ramifications. Russia's military withdrawal from Georgia could erode Moscow's ability to influence regional political and economic developments, including the high-stakes contest to build lucrative oil and gas export routes. [For background see EurasiaNet's business and economic archives]. Although unlikely in the near term, the void created by Russia's withdrawal could be filled by NATO forces. Russia has sought a written guarantee that third countries will not be able to occupy facilities evacuated by Russian forces.
Georgian Foreign Ministry spokesman Kakha Sikharulidze said on June 23 that Tbilisi would comply with Moscow's request. However, Georgia retains hope of ultimately gaining NATO membership. NATO-Georgian relations received a boost during joint military maneuvers held near the Black Sea port of Poti, in western Georgia. Georgia is striving, with Western aid, to bring its military standards up to NATO levels.
Another destabilizing factor is the impact on the ethnic Armenians living near the Akhalkalaki base. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The base is the main source of employment and commerce for local Armenians. The departure of Russian forces could thus have a significant economic impact on the local population, cutting many off from a regular source of livelihood. Gigla Baramidze, Shevardnadze's regional representative, stated that central and local authorities would need at least four years to reorient the regional economy. Shevardnadze, meanwhile, promised on June 25 to create jobs for those left unemployed by the Russian withdrawal. But local Armenians are wary about the Georgian government's ability to make good on its promises.
The ongoing discussions over the fate of the Akhalkalaki and Batumi bases will likely be another stumbling block for Georgia-Russia relations. Also, still to be resolved is how Georgia utilizes the Vaziani base, although few weeks ago Georgian defense minister Davit Tevzadze raised the possibility of the base becoming the home of the elite Koda division.
Dimitri Bit-Suleiman is a freelance journalist based in Georgia.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.