As part of a one-two punch combination designed to send the Obama administration a powerful message, the Kremlin has followed up on Kyrgyzstan's announced intention to close the lone US air base in Central Asia by unveiling a Russian-led rapid reaction force.
The rapid reaction force, the creation of which was announced February 4 during a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Moscow, will be designed to respond to regional security challenges. The backbone of the new force, according to a report by the official Russian RIA Novosti news agency, may be the 98th Guards Airborne Division, a unit that participated in Russia's lightning war with Georgia in August 2008. The rapid reaction force would also likely have at least token contingents from the other CSTO member states, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
That the creation of new CSTO force came immediately after the Kyrgyz government's initiative to oust American forces from the Manas base does not seem coincidental. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev went out of his way to draw parallels between the envisioned CSTO unit and NATO's peace-making capabilities.
"This will be a formidable [CSTO] force, adequate in number [and] equipped with the most modern equipment," RIA Novosti quoted Medvedev as saying. "In their military potential, they [CSTO the rapid reaction troops] should be no worse than North Atlantic alliance forces."
The clear implication of Medvedev's statement is that the CSTO force could be a ready replacement for departing US and NATO troops, should the eviction process at Manas continue. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
To emphasize the seriousness of its intent, the Kremlin orchestrated a strong show of CSTO unity. Such a sense of unity was glaring in its absence in 2008, when the CSTO failed to unequivocally endorse Russia's actions in Georgia and Moscow's subsequent recognition of the separatist entities of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Even Tajikistan, which has been barely on speaking terms with Russia in recent weeks, rallied behind the Kremlin's plans. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In early February, aides to Tajik President Imomali Rahmon announced that pressing duties at home would prevent him from attending the CSTO summit. But there Rahmon was in Moscow on February 4, going out of his way to downplay speculation about a rift between Moscow and Dushanbe.
Kazakhstan went along with Russia's plans too. But there are signs that Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev did so reluctantly. In a February 2 article distributed by the Interfax news agency, Nazarbayev hinted in a backhanded way that the Kremlin may be getting carried away with trying to get back at the United States for precipitating the global financial crisis. Russia has been one of the hardest hit nations by the global market nosedive over the past few months. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Kazakhstan, for that matter, has also taken a big hit [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Rather than apportion blame, or seek a measure of revenge, Nazarbayev said the scope of the crisis is sufficiently huge that any given nation's attention and resources should be focused on promoting a recovery. Nations should be coming together, rather than taking swipes at each other. "At present, it is more important to concentrate on identifying the deep defects in the system that have caused these strong global cataclysms, and above all, on searching for ways of completely eliminating them," Nazarbayev wrote.
Russian political analysts have hailed the recent geopolitical turn of events in Moscow, especially the move to rid Central Asia of its American military base. Some experts expressed wariness on two counts, however. Kyrgyzstan could prove an unpleasantly expensive client state for Russia, a few said. Others cautioned that the United States, if it sees no other alternative to keeping its troops in Kyrgyzstan, might try to promote a coup to remove Bakiyev from power.
Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.
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