Several videos have been posted on the Wagner Group's Telegram channel that should have the Kremlin very worried. 

In the first, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia's new Pugachev, is purportedly having a meeting at the mercenary group's headquarters in the southern city of Rostov with two Russian military tough-guys, Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of the General Staff Vladimir Alexeyev. In the video, Prigozhin airs grievances in blunt and bullying terms, essentially calling for the heads of his chief antagonists, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valeri Gerasimov. These two are Yevkulov's and Alexeyev's direct superiors, but instead of offering a defense of their comrades and the military's actions, Prigozhin's interlocutors respond in a submissive manner, their body language indicating submission to the Wagner chief, who is openly mutinying against the Kremlin. 

Yevkurov, for one, has a well-known reputation for pugnacity. That he would allow himself to be filmed in such a submissive role is remarkable in itself. 

More broadly, the video clip raises a lot of questions to which there are no clear answers at the moment. First and foremost, why are two top military leaders having a sedate meeting with Prigozhin at a time when the Kremlin has declared the Wagner boss a rebel and has ordered his arrest? Was the Kremlin aware of the meeting? That seems unlikely. And even if the video is somehow manipulated, recorded before the outbreak of the mutiny, for example, the content of the discussion and the actions of the participants are extraordinary. 

Whatever the circumstances behind the video, it has dangerous implications for Putin's grip on power, which relies heavily on the perception that he is omnipotent and the unchallenged master of Russia. In other words, the quintessential strong Tsar. This video severely undermines this image. 

It's clear that this video is a propaganda exercise for Prigozhin. Clearly staged. And Yevkurov and Alexeyev willingly play the part of lackeys. In the eyes of many Russians, it gives legitimacy to Wagner's grievances and makes Putin look out of touch, uncontrolling of the situation, and worst for him, weak. 

Why isn’t Prigozhin being arrested by these two? That's a question a lot of Russians may be asking right now.

As for the second video, it shows Wagner forces receiving a welcoming wave from civilians in Rostov. The situation seems calm and the Wagner vehicles are obviously feeling safe in the city, which is a logistics hub for Russia's war effort in Ukraine. 

Putin has been a strong geopolitical poker player throughout his career, often solidifying his own power by playing competing factions inside the Kremlin off each other. But with Prigozhin/Pugachev going rogue, Putin may have badly overplayed his hand in this round. The longer Prigozhin lasts in this open state of rebellion, the more the threat to Putin's power grows. Russian history shows the country cannot abide dual power for long.