Russia's military withdrawal from its two bases in Georgia is being heralded as a "new stage in Russian-Georgian relations."

The pull-out is proceeding without a ratified framework agreement, leaving Georgian defense officials to fulfill details without a guiding document. The third stage of the withdrawal, currently underway, involves the removal of at least 40 armored vehicles from the Gonio firing range outside of the Black Sea city of Batumi to amphibious landing ships destined for the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Twenty T-72 tanks, five BRDM combat reconnaissance vehicles, 12 KUB self-propelled surface-to-air missiles, and three Shilka air-defense systems will be withdrawn, Col. Alexander Kiknadze, deputy chief of the general staff of the Georgian Armed Forces in charge of the withdrawal, told reporters in Batumi.

"The most important thing in the withdrawal of Russian bases from Georgia is that the final agreement be signed. That everything is agreed. That everything is laid out point by point," Col. Kiknadze said. "When the final agreement is signed, future stages will be clear," Until then, he added, Georgian officials "hope that problems don't happen."

Other military facilities "not used in the interests of GRVZ [Group of Russian Troops in Trans-Caucasus]," headquarted in Tbilisi, will be transferred to Georgia by September 1. Once these stages are complete, the second phase of the withdrawal will begin sometime after September 1, Col. Kiknadze said.

Without a framework agreement, Kiknadze explained that he and his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valeri Yevnevich, refer to the draft framework agreement, as well as to the deadlines established in the May 30 Joint Declaration on Russia's withdrawal. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "We agree on questions as they arise and make decisions."

Malhaz Mikeladze, Georgia's ambassador-at-large for political-military affairs at the Foreign Ministry, stressed that Moscow bears the burden for completing the agreement. "On our side, we concluded this work," Mikeladze stated. "We look forward to the Russian side making similar steps. We are ready to sign this agreement." Mikeladze said the two sides "reached consensus" on June 17 on the text of the so-called Agreement on Timeframe, Mode of Functioning and Withdrawal of the Russian Military Bases from Georgia. He attributed Russia's delay to its "great bureaucracy" and various "internal procedures," but said that he remains "optimistic" that the final agreement will soon be concluded.

An opportunity to set a date for a final agreement may come at the August 27 summit of leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States in the Russian city of Kazan, where Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet. "[I]t's up to these presidents to decide when the framework agreement is to be signed," Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili said, according to an August 2 statement released by the Georgian Foreign Ministry.

Since the military pull-out began on July 29, four convoys of approximately 44 military vehicles have left from the 62nd base in Akhalkalaki and the 12th base in Batumi. Three convoys headed to the Russian territory of Kabardino-Balkaria and one to the Russian base in Gyumri, Armenia. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russia has also already transferred to Georgia the 142nd Armor/Tank Repair Factory in Tbilisi, and is expected to hand three additional military facilities over to Georgian officials by September 1.

Georgian television reported that Batumi residents were on hand to distribute flowers and champagne to Russian soldiers departing Batumi on July 30. "I'm proud when Georgian boots are marching, not Russian," said Ketevan Antidze, a Batumi-based political activist for the governing National Movement Party.

Moscow's military presence in Georgia stretches back over two centuries. Today, more than 3,000 Russian military personnel reportedly remain in Georgia at various bases and facilities, with numerous Georgian citizens providing services. Under the terms of the May 30 Joint Declaration, the final withdrawal from Akhalkalaki and the transfer of facilities is scheduled for "no later than the end of 2007." The Batumi and GRVZ pull-out is scheduled for completion by 2008.

In line with a 1999 OSCE Istanbul Treaty, Russia pulled out of its 137th base in Vaziani, outside of Tbilisi, in 2000 and reported to have done the same from its 50th base in Gudauta, in breakaway Abkhazia. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Many Georgians view the base withdrawal as a potential catalyst for the resolution of other bilateral issues, in particular negotiated settlements to the Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts. Some also believe the withdrawal could enhance Georgia's chances of joining NATO. "The political value is that we will be a freer country with greater possibility to operate in international organizations, such as NATO," said one Georgian official involved in the conflict resolution process for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, who requested anonymity.

Even after base withdrawal process is completed, Russian troops will remain on Georgian soil, acting in the capacity of international peace-keepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. As long as those two conflicts remain unresolved, Georgia's NATO accession prospects could remain uncertain. One US defense analyst said that "the resolution of these conflicts would be considered by [NATO] as a pre-condition for membership." However, the analyst added that "several senior Georgian officials" have asked NATO to re-evaluate this position "since it, in essence, provides Russia with an informal veto over Tbilisi's moving forward in the NATO accession process." [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ambassador David Smith, US representative to the International Security Advisory Board, an independent defense policy advisory group, and chairman of the Georgia Forum, established in 2002 to promote closer Georgia-US relations, agreed that the frozen conflicts should not block Georgia's NATO membership efforts. "[W]e should not shoot ourselves and Georgia in the foot with preconditions," Smith said. "Should we ever say that Georgia cannot join NATO so long as the conflicts are unresolved, rest assured that Moscow will never allow the conflicts to be resolved."

President Saakashvili recently praised Russia for taking a "very brave step" in pulling out of Georgia. Other Georgian government officials are hopeful that the departure of Russian troops could speed efforts to negotiate political settlements to the Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts. "As long as the Russian bases are here, there is still hope for Abkhazia and South Ossetia that Russia will help," said one Georgian defense official who asked not to be named. "When they are not here, it will be easier for negotiations."

A Tbilisi-based Western diplomat, however, suggested that the base withdrawal process would have a minimal impact on the separatist regions' peace processes. "I don't think they will have an effect on negotiations over the two territories one way or the other," the diplomat said. "I think Russian strategic planners finally realized that the bases were more or less worthless. ... They were kept as an irritant, a cheap way to keep Georgia on edge."

Those who live in the vicinity of the two bases are worrying about the economic impact of the Russians' departure. The bases have long been a major source of jobs for local residents, and many now believe that when the Russian troops depart, employment opportunities will dwindle. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At present, the official unemployment rate in Adjara, where one of the Russian bases is located, is 18 percent, while the poverty rate is 64 percent. Those rates could rise in the coming months. "Who will employ the unemployed Georgians?" asked one man who owns a kiosk near a Russian facility in Makhinjauli, just outside Batumi. "What guarantee do we have after the Russians leave?"

But for others, the expected benefits of the Russians' departure outweigh the potential liabilities. "We would like economic relations with Russia. But we don't want their bases here," said Alexander Chitishvili, former head of an intelligence battalion in the Georgian National Guard. "As long as they are here, we are a conquered country."