Azerbaijan President Heidar Aliyev's Illness Underscores Leadership Conundrum in Azerbaijan
After more than three decades at or near the pinnacle of power in Azerbaijan a period that stretches far back into the Soviet era President Heidar Aliyev might arguably repeat the pronouncement once uttered by the French monarch Louis XIV: "L'etat, c'est moi" (I am the state).
Without doubt, Azerbaijan is closely associated with Aliyev's authority. Over the last decade alone Aliyev has played a pivotal role in stabilizing Azerbaijan following the chaos of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and in guiding the development of the country's abundant natural resources. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].
However, there are inherent risks for a state, such as Azerbaijan, that depends on leadership by a forceful personality rather than from strong institutions. As Aliyev's current health problems underscore, countries with such leaders are often unprepared for a political transition period. As such, Azerbaijan is now facing potential instability, political analysts contend.
A key requirement for Azerbaijan's political system, with its authoritarian tendencies, would seem to be a relatively fit and charismatic leader. Up until his April 21 collapse, Aliyev met both requirements. Now, uncertainty surrounds Aliyev's condition. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Aware of the need to project an image of Aliyev being in firm control, aides insist the infirm president maintains a firm grasp on the reins of power. The pro-government television channel, Lider, broadcast footage of Aliyev receiving Boris Aleksenko, Ukaine's envoy to Baku, on April 30. Meanwhile, Chief of Staff Ali Hasanov characterized Aliyev's condition as "normal," and stressed that the president was fit enough to run for another term in elections scheduled for October, the Turan news agency reported April 30. To reinforce the message, Lider TV broadcast comments by the president's son, Ilham, who indicated that his father intended to seek another term.
In addition, Hasanov castigated opposition media for turning into "a hotbed of slander and rumors" concerning Aliyev's recovery. Opposition newspapers have sought to capitalize on Aliyev's illness, and many of the claims about Aliyev's condition have not been independently confirmed, or have turned out to be inaccurate. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Nevertheless, many believe that the president's health problems are more severe than Aliyev aides are letting on.
Opposition politicians have demanded an independent medical inquiry into the president's health. Government officials are dismissive of their political opponents, saying that Aliyev can handle all of his presidential responsibilities. Political analysts both inside and outside Azerbaijan suggest that a lack of reliable information about the president's condition, as well as on the prognosis for recovery, leave the country vulnerable to instability.
"Anything can happen and it could all be catastrophic," political scientist Rasim Musabekov said in an interview published by the Baku newspaper Ekho. "What if this [a health issue] happens again during a presidential campaign? The elections have been fixed and it is illegal to cancel them."
On April 28, the opposition Democratic Congress issued a statement expressing concern about a possible coup carried out by Aliyev supporters in order to perpetuate their power, the Bilik Dunyasi newspaper reported. The statement also warned that authorities might be tempted to postpone the presidential elections.
Some analysts suggest that Aliyev's inner circle may feel inclined to go to great lengths to preserve Aliyev
Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York; and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University. He is now based in Istanbul, Turkey.
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