If it is definitively determined that the Moscow atrocity was carried out by ISKP, it would be consistent with the rapid increase in the group's external operations activities as of late.
In the days since the mass killing at the Crocus City concert hall near Moscow, blameless Tajik migrants across Russia have been subjected to threats, verbal abuse and increased harassment from law enforcement.
In addition to the risk of the Ukraine War spreading to Georgian territory, the planned Russian naval base in Abkhazia could threaten Georgia's status as a global east-west connectivity hub.
Armenia is increasingly keen on Western mediation while Azerbaijan prefers to see the issue settled with the participation of regional powers like Russia and Turkey.
Armenia doesn't trust Azerbaijan's recent actions and rhetoric indicating that it's deprioritizing its ambition for a corridor through Armenia to its exclave Nakhchivan.