Many human rights advocates and political analysts believed civil society development in Central Asia would suffer as a consequence of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Ultimately, it has, but not in ways that many expected. Incumbent authorities have indeed implemented measures that have eroded political freedoms. At the same time, opposition political movements are today active in several Central Asian nations, especially in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

A year ago, in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist tragedy, conventional wisdom expected an expanded crackdown against all those challenging authority in Central Asia. One US government source at the time said the attacks could give Central Asian leaders a "green light to quash civil liberties." [For background see the EurasiaNet human rights archives].

A few human rights experts voiced concerns about a drastic increase in arrests, especially in Uzbekistan, where President Islam Karimov's government was already busy rounding up suspected religious radicals. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Such mass arrests never occurred. But that is not to say that regional governments did not expand repressive activities. They just became more difficult to measure, some human rights advocates say. "You can't document an actual surge in [rights abuse] cases," said Catherine Fitzpatrick, CIS Program Director at the International League for Human Rights.

"It's more about a new cynicism of [Central Asian] governments. They seem impervious to petitions from abroad " that seek a change in their behavior, Fitzpatrick continued. "They now feel like they don't have to go through the motions" of espousing democratic rhetoric.

Authoritarianism has long been the chief feature of political life in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. But over the last year, repressive tendencies have rapidly developed in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. "There seems to be a decreasing conviction [among Central Asian leaders] that democratic methods are the best approach," John Schoeberlein, president of the Central Eurasian Studies Society.

In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev's administration in recent months has engineered legislative changes that make it much harder for opposition parties to mount electoral campaigns. The government has also imprisoned two high-profile opposition figures [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives] and has imposed far-reaching restrictions on independent media. "You now see repression of the press in a country [Kazakhstan] that used to enjoy a relatively free press," Schoeberlein said.

The Kyrgyz government has taken similar action to stifle opposition. President Askar Akayev is pressing ahead with a constitutional reform process that many observers believe will greatly enhance executive authority. And citing security concerns, the government on September 9 proposed a bill that would outlaw virtually all forms of organized political protest for a three-month period. "Kyrgyzstan is taking the Belarus path," Fitzpatrick said.

Surprisingly, Uzbekistan has seemed the most willing of all Central Asian states to make liberalization gestures. In March, for example, Uzbek authorities officially registered the Independent Human Rights Organization. Despite such moves, President Islam Karimov remains an opponent of political pluralism, experts say. "In Uzbekistan there have been some attempts to satisfy international concerns. But it is difficult to have confidence that the measures are taken out of conviction [in democratic principles]," Schoeberlein said. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives].

According to Schoeberlein, Central Asian governments have been "steadily moving away from democratization" since the early 1990s, when the Central Asian states gained their independence. The September 11 attacks "hastened this trend by bringing the issue of security to the forefront, while democratization and human rights took a back seat," he said.

The dichotomy of Central Asia's situation is that the September 11 terrorism tragedy also infused opposition movements with a sense of urgency. Over the past year, high-profile political opposition movements have come together in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Turkmen opposition leaders, working from abroad, have pressed efforts to oust the country's leader Saparmurat Niyazov. Over the past year, several prominent former members of the hierarchy have joined the opposition, including former Foreign Minister Boris Shikhmuradov. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In Kazakhstan, a powerful opposition movement, Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, emerged in early 2002 to pose a significant challenge to President Nursultan Nazarbayev's authority. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]

Meanwhile, opposition protests in Kyrgyzstan have continued since a March confrontation that left at least five dead. Over the past year, the Kyrgyz political opposition has become more radicalized than in other Central Asian nations to the point that a major point of its political program is to force Akayev's resignation.

To Schoeberlein, the increase in opposition activity does not come as a surprise. "If opposition movements are to have a future, then they must act now," Schoeberlein said. "The longer that authoritarian governments have to institutionalize