A political standoff, driven by widespread popular discontent with a potential Russian investment deal, entered into its fourth day on November 18 in the separatist territory of Abkhazia. Anti-government forces showed no signs of giving up their occupation of the de-facto parliament and president’s office in Russia’s recalcitrant protectorate on the Black Sea. 

Gunfire erupted during the evening of November 17 near the de facto government’s television company’s offices in Sokhumi, the region’s capital, in a sign that the situation remains highly volatile. Official sources claimed that security guards had to fire warning shots to fend off opposition attempt to occupy the building. 

Opposition leaders led crowds to storm the regional government complex on November 15 to prevent authorities from adopting controversial privileges for Russian real estate developers. Claiming that the privileges amount to a national security threat, the protesters drove a truck through the government gates and yanked bars from the windows to climb into the offices. 

The region’s de-facto president, Aslan Bzhania, was left marooned in his home village of Tamysh, where he held an emergency cabinet meeting in a local school. The insurgents demanded the resignation of Bzhania and his entourage, and early elections. Bzhania initially signaled a willingness to step down as long as the insurgents vacated government offices. But he later adopted a defiant stance and rallied his supporters in his hometown. 

The protesters vowed to keep Bzhania out of the government buildings at any cost. “This is unacceptable,” said Adgur Ardzinba, leader of the Abkhaz National Movement opposition group. 

At the heart of the standoff are proposed privileges for Russian developers. Protesters claim that the concessions threaten to price locals out of real estate development opportunities, as well as the housing market. 

Regarded by most of the world as part of Georgia, breakaway Abkhazia existentially depends on Russia, which guards the region’s de-facto borders, pays public officials’ salaries and provides development aid. Russian tourists and agricultural imports provide a lifeline to the otherwise largely blockaded territory, which broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s amid a civil conflict. 

Over protests from Georgia, the Kremlin recognized Abkhazia as an independent state in 2009 and deployed thousands of troops there to dissuade any attempt from Tbilisi to mount an armed effort to regain control over the territory. Moscow is now developing a naval base in Abkhazia, potentially to serve as a launching pad for attacks on Ukraine. 

While protected by Russian guns, the tiny region of less than 250,000 people also feels smothered by Moscow’s embrace; local residents express fears about being overrun by Russian economic interests. This summer, public backlash forced the de-facto authorities to scrap a bill that would have allowed the Russians to buy up land and homes in Abkhazia, a popular holiday destination for Russians. Last year’s transfer of the region’s famous Pitsunda Dacha – an erstwhile R&R escape for Soviet communist leaders – to Russia government protection agency sparked massive outcry among Abkhaz.       

Resistance to Russian interests by Abkhaz residents has been testing the patience of Russian leaders, who perceive themselves to be Abkhazia’s saviors. In September, Moscow drastically cut aid to Abkhazia and stopped subsidizing electricity supplies. The looming collapse of the real estate investment deal doubtless is adding to the list of the Kremlin’s grievances with its protectorate. 

Commenting on the developments in Abkhazia, a key Russian lawmaker Konstantin Zatulin described the region as a failed state. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova called on Russian citizens to refrain from visits to Abkhazia.