A sense of equilibrium appears to be returning to Tajik-Russian relations following Tajik President Imomali Rahmon's state visit to Moscow. The two sides seem to have made progress on two divisive issues - Russia's military base in Tajikistan and hydropower projects.

Rahmon traveled to Russia on October 21-23. In a joint statement issued following a meeting on October 22, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Rahmon expressed interest in continuing energy cooperation, including hydropower plants and Gazprom's natural gas projects. Both leaders also pledged to develop military ties.

The vague wording of the presidential statement prompted analysts to initially believe that Rahmon's trip to Moscow had failed to achieve any breakthroughs. But developments over subsequent days indicated that the two countries were making progress toward settlements - most noticeably on the matter of Russia's military presence in Tajikistan.

Under an agreement signed in 2004, Russia maintains what is known as the 201st military base in Tajikistan, a facility that is home to roughly 6,000 Russian troops. Under the present lease terms, Moscow does not make any payment to Dushanbe. But in recent weeks, Russian media outlets carried reports that Tajik authorities were seeking upwards of $300 million in annual rent from Moscow for continued access to the facility.

Rahmon in Moscow appeared to back away from seeking rent. On October 22, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said the rent question did not come up. Later, he clarified his comments, saying that Russia would not be paying any rent for at least the remainder of the current lease, which runs until 2014. After that, the rent issue would be a subject of negotiations. Serdyukov also said Moscow and Dushanbe were exploring an arms supply deal.

On October 26, the official Russian news agency RIA Novosti quoted Tajik Foreign Minister Khamrokhon Zarifi as saying Dushanbe was committed to honoring the current lease terms. "We [Russia and Tajikistan] have no claims or reproaches to each other on the issue, we are speaking about Tajik-Russian military and strategic partnership," Zarifi said.

Though rejected on the base rent issue, Tajikistan has reason to hope that Moscow's interest in hydropower development is again on the rise. Amid the Rahmon visit to Moscow, Russian and Tajik officials appeared to resolve some financial issues. On October 22, for example, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko announced that both sides reached an agreement covering the repayment of roughly $30 million owed by Tajikistani energy companies to the Sangtuda-1 hydro-electric power station. Russia holds a majority stake in the plant. Sangtuda-1 finally opened in July of this year after experiencing years of delays. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]

In the days leading up to his Russia trip, Rahmon's press-service complained about the slow pace of Russian-financed energy projects in Tajikistan, including gas projects and plans to build 3 small hydropower plants. In Moscow, however, Rahmon pointedly avoided criticism of Russia concerning energy-related projects. On October 22, Medvedev confirmed Moscow's intent to build the three small hydropower plants. Shmatko indicated that Russia was counting on obtaining a "controlling stake in these plants," adding that Moscow hoped "for the Tajik side's understanding."

If all goes well, the two sides might again contemplate completing the massive Rogun dam project. The construction of Rogun started in 1976 but ground to a halt in 1991 amid the Soviet collapse. In 2004, Russia and Tajikistan agreed to revive the Rogun project, and Russia pledged to invest some $2 billion in Tajik projects. In August 2007, however, the cooperation deal collapsed in a heap of mutual recrimination. Some experts contended that pressure from Uzbekistan prompted Moscow to back away from the project. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].