Tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan is again flaring over Nagorno-Karabakh. Numerous ceasefire violations have been reported in July, with both sides accusing the other of stoking external conflict in order to divert attention from domestic political difficulties.
Among the most recent incidents was a July 21 firefight between Azerbaijani and Armenian armed forces near Garakhanbeyli, a village in the Fizuli region of Azerbaijan. The exchange of gunfire supposedly lasted an hour. Azerbaijani Defense Ministry officials reported no casualties. However, the independent newspaper Zerkalo reported that at least five Azerbaijani soldiers have been killed in the village in recent weeks.
The first clash in the recent spate of ceasefire violations occurred in Garakhanbeyli in late June. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Since then, clashes have been reported at other points along the contact line established by the 1994 ceasefire agreement. Efforts to forge a political settlement for Karabakh have made little progress in recent years.
In addition to ceasefire violations around Karabakh, Azerbaijani officials contend cross-border firing has occurred in the exclave of Nakhichevan. Armenian authorities have rejected such claims. Local authorities in the Azerbaijani exclave prevented an independent effort to verify one gunfire exchange, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
In recent days, Azerbaijan has adopted a more belligerent posture on Karabakh, blaming Armenian forces for initiating each confrontation. On July 28, Defense Minister Safar Abiyev announced: "Our forces are ready to repel any aggression." An earlier commentary broadcast by ANS television suggested the "constant truce violations" could reignite the war. Foreign Minister Vilayat Quliyev announced that Baku has appealed to the United Nations to hold Armenia responsible for the cease-fire violations.
Armenian officials have repeatedly denied initiating any of the clashes, alleging instead that Baku bears responsibility for breaking the ceasefire. In one instance, the Armenian Mediamax news agency reported July 14 that Karabakh defense forces had thwarted an attempt by "an Azeri intelligence-sabotage" unit to infiltrate the region. "A shooting took place in which one Azerbaijani solder was killed and several were wounded," the Mediamax report stated. "The enemy was forced to retreat."
Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian told Mediamax that shooting often occurs along the contact line, adding that Armenian forces had suffered only one casualty in July. "The Azerbaijani side has always tried to improve its position along the contact line, and we have always prevented such attempts," Sarkisian said.
Some Armenian political observers say that domestic political uncertainty in Baku surrounding the state of President Heidar Aliyev's health, along with the forthcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan, is linked to the rise of tension surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. The clashes could help distract the Azerbaijani public as the Aliyev administration grapples with the political succession question, some Armenian experts contend.
Aliyev is reportedly seriously ill and receiving treatment at a Turkish military hospital. Opposition media has reported Aliyev to be terminally ill, while administration officials insist that the president will soon return to Baku. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani officials accuse Armenian President Robert Kocharian's administration of pursuing a similar policy. A commentary in the government newspaper Yeni Azerbaijan on July 15 suggested that domestic discontent in Armenia is high, stirred in large part by Kocharian's controversial re-election victory [for background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Kocharian's domestic concerns, Yeni Azerbaijan continued, are prompting his administration to try to create a diversion in Karabakh. "The incidents on the contact line are directly linked to the crisis inside Armenia, rather than to the forthcoming [presidential] election in Azerbaijan," the newspaper said.
International mediators on the Karabakh issue have urged both sides to show restraint concerning the recent ceasefire violations. There are signs, however, that mediators' influence may be waning. In a June 28 interview published by the Ekho newspaper, Azerbaijan's UN ambassador, Yasar Aliyev, was critical of what he said was an inconsistent policy carried out by the OSCE Minsk Group, which is in charge of mediation efforts.
"Russia, France and the United States are the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, and they are members of the UN Security Council. Representatives of these countries in the Security Council are unlikely to call to account their countrymen in the Minsk Group," Aliyev complained.
Fariz Ismailzade is a Baku-based freelance writer on Caucasus geo-politics and economics. He holds a masters degree from Washington University in St. Louis and works for Cornell Caspian Consulting.
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