A political battle is building over Azerbaijan's planned constitutional referendum, in which the most controversial question covers presidential succession in the event of death or incapacitating illness. Incumbent President Heidar Aliyev maintains that the existing constitutional provisions are outdated. Critics, however, portray the referendum as a new scheme developed by Aliyev to ensure that his son, Ilham, succeeds him as president.
Overall the referendum, scheduled for August 24, will cover 39 proposed alterations to the constitution. Some seek to enhance the protection of civil liberties in order to bring Azerbaijan's basic law into line with Council of Europe standards. For example, one referendum question concerns the appointment of an ombudsman, or human rights commissioner. Voters will also be asked whether or not Azerbaijan should establish an alternative to service in the armed forces.
But most attention surrounding the referendum is focused on two questions: one would change the electoral framework to a first-past-the-post system, instead of the existing proportional representation format; the other would alter the presidential succession process. Under the current constitutional framework, the parliament speaker is first in line of presidential succession. Aliyev is seeking to change the system so that the prime minister would assume presidential duties in an emergency.
Opposition parties, political observers and the Council of Europe have criticized the moves as a step away from democracy and towards the greater concentration of power in the hands of the president.
Andreas Gross of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe suggested a referendum was the wrong approach for Azerbaijan. "This is an incorrect way of resolving such issues, because referendums are for changes introduced by people and not by presidents. I regret that Heidar Aliyev did not consult the Council of Europe over these difficult issues."
One opposition MP, Ali Karimli, said Ailyev's proposed changes were unconstitutional, violating Article 158, which establishes the procedures for making changes in executive and legislative authority. Others suggested that Aliyev seemed intent on crushing political opposition to his administration.
"By removing the proportional electoral system, they are virtually barring [opposition] parties from parliamentary elections," Etibar Mamedov, chairman of the Party of National Independence, was reported as saying. Sardar Jalaloglu of the Azerbaijan Democratic Party described the move as "reactionary" and said it "presupposes a return to he Soviet single-party system of government."
Independent political analyst Leyla Aliyeva said: "Here, the proportional system was the only way for the opposition to participate in elections. And with our history of unfair electoral practices, this will leave no room for the opposition. Under a majoritarian system, everything will be even easier to control."
Aliyev critics claim that following approval of the constitutional changes, the elder Aliyev would name Ilham Aliyev as prime minister and then engineer a transfer of power. "These amendments are one stage in the realization of the plan to make Ilham Aliyev president," says Shahin Hajiev, political editor at Turan news agency. "There will be other steps in the future."
Hajiev, along with Aliyeva, expect that the referendum questions to be approved. However, Hajiev said he wouldn't be surprised if the opposition boycotted the referendum. It is unlikely that the entire package of amendments as it now stands will be put to a vote, particularly in light of international criticism, Hajiev added.
"The amendments include some points that won't be realized," Hajiev says. "The president will trade. He'll make some changes and say that he listened to people and describe this as proof of democracy."
Aliyev himself has sought to downplay the referendum. "We have joined certain conventions," Aliyev told Azerbaijani television June 24. "Some changes had to be introduced in this regard." He added that there was "nothing special" about handing the presidential mandate to the prime minister rather than the parliamentary speaker. At the same time, Ilham Aliyev dismissed reports of his being named prime minister as "rumors."
Aliyeva, the political scientist, said the opposition had limited means to frustrate the president's plans, citing the fact that the government maintains strict control over mass media.
Indeed, officials appear intent on controlling referendum coverage. The Union of Editors complained July 10 about a government requirement that only journalists accredited by the Central Election Commission will be permitted to cover the referendum. The editors' union said such a move would to stifle freedom of expression, and suggested that it would file a lawsuit to get the requirement overturned in court. Election commission officials say they have no plans to change the requirement.
Clare Doyle is a freelance journalist based in Baku.
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