The Aliyev paradox: clamping down to promote a sophisticated image
Azerbaijan enlists Russia’s help in muzzling dissenting views.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has created a paradox for himself concerning the upcoming COP29 climate conference. Playing host to the gathering in Baku in November fits well with Aliyev’s long-standing desire for international recognition for Azerbaijan as a modern, sophisticated state. But to ensure COP29 follows his image-crafting script, the Azerbaijani leader has felt compelled to pursue an all-encompassing crackdown on those holding alternative points of view, thus fostering a despotic persona at odds with his desire for a greater level of international prestige.
Amid the run-up to COP29 Azerbaijan has made a sharp geopolitical zag toward Russia and away from the United States, highlighted by an early October visit to Baku by Sergei Naryshkin, the director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). While in Baku, Naryshkin held meetings with a wide variety of Azerbaijani domestic security and foreign intelligence officials, as well as with Aliyev, to discuss “the cooperation of the Russian Security Service with Azerbaijan’s special services in various directions of intelligence activities,” according to an SVR statement.
The Russian account went on to say the two sides worked to prioritize near-term goals for bilateral relations, noting a “special place” for joint work to counter activities by “Western special services … aimed at disrupting the internal political stability of our states.”
“One of the main tasks of intelligence and counterintelligence is the timely identification and prevention of anti-Russian and anti-Azerbaijani provocative actions organized abroad,” the SVR statement added. It claimed that Western intelligence services were attempting to work via “non-systemic opposition and international terrorist organizations” to destabilize Russia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani officials did not issue a statement offering their own version of the discussions with Naryshkin.
The Naryshkin visit followed on the heels of a recent wave of arrests and sentencings of dissident and critical voices in Azerbaijan, including the detention of researcher Bahruz Samadov on treason charges.
Independent political activists in Azerbaijan have portrayed the SVR statement, and Azerbaijan’s silent assent to its contents, as an effective ban on all forms of criticism of state policy in Azerbaijan. The timing of the statement’s release ensures that it will be difficult for government critics to use COP29 as an opportunity to focus international attention on Azerbaijan’s poor rights record, as well as on local environmental issues the government would prefer not to discuss, such as the harm done to local populations by mining operations.
“It appears that the government is deepening its alliance with Russia and preparing for a transition to full dictatorship,” independent politician Elman Fattah wrote on social media, referring to the use of the word ‘opposition’ in the SVR statement. “Dissident activity will now be viewed as illegal in our country and will even be equated with terrorism.”
“This is despotism,” Jamil Hasanli, a political activist and historian wrote on Facebook.
While the SVR statement indicates a deepening of intelligence cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan, the partnership does have limits. Baku’s recent refusal to bend to the Kremlin’s wishes on the establishment of the so-called Zangezur corridor underscores that Aliyev can say ‘no’ to Russia. Azerbaijan’s southern neighbor, Iran, is adamantly opposed to the Zangezur route, which would establish a land connection between Azerbaijan proper and the Nakhchivan exclave across Armenian territory. Azerbaijan and Armenia recently agreed to set aside the Zangezur issue as the two countries work to finalize a durable peace agreement.
Aliyev’s deepening crackdown on internal dissent has been accompanied by an uptick in tension between Azerbaijan and the United States. On October 3, dozens of US congressmen sent a petition to Secretary of State Antony Blinken to “take decisive action” against Azerbaijan’s human rights violations ahead of the UN Climate Conference, or COP29, which Azerbaijan will host next month.
“The upcoming COP29 in Azerbaijan offers a unique opportunity to promote clean energy and regional cooperation, but it is critical for the United States to address the significant challenges posed by ongoing human rights violations and unresolved territorial conflicts in Azerbaijan,” the letter read.
Aliyev responded with a caustic speech the next day, in which he accused the State Department of hypocrisy in trying to promote peace in the South Caucasus while attempting to undermine his government.
Members of Azerbaijan’s rubber-stamp parliament subsequently sent their own petition to Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, asking him to terminate active contacts between Azerbaijan and the United States, as well as USAID-funded activity in Azerbaijan. “A few foreign circles have taken advantage of the fact that Azerbaijan will host COP29 and decided to dictate some issues to Azerbaijan,” the petition reads.
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