Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev got what he wished for in the US presidential election: Donald Trump will return to the White House. But Trump’s early moves in assembling his foreign policy team suggest his second term may end up being a bumpier ride for Azerbaijan than Aliyev anticipated. 

Broadly speaking, the incoming Trump administration is expected to de-emphasize adherence to democratic standards and respect for individual rights as guideposts for US foreign policy. That is welcome news for authoritarian-minded leaders, such as Aliyev, as well as Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream Party, which has embraced illiberal policies in recent years.

Prior to the November 5 US presidential vote, Aliyev praised Trump’s first term as a time of “very fruitful cooperation” between the United States and Azerbaijan. His implied assumption was that the warm and fuzzy feelings would carry over into a second Trump term, representing for Baku a welcome respite from four years of verbal jousting with the Biden administration over Azerbaijan’s rights record. 

“At this time, the more experienced and stronger Trump will rule the United States. This will allow him to realize the slogan ‘Make America Great Again’,” the pro-government news agency Report.az cheered in an editorial.

But some aspects of Trump’s worldview, as well as his personnel choices, could create complications for Baku and Tbilisi. To start, experts widely believe geopolitical developments in the Caucasus are unlikely to captivate Trump, thus he will be inclined to leave US policymaking in the hands of subordinates. In that case, the widely reported news that Trump intends to nominate Florida senator Marco Rubio to be secretary of state is a cause for concern in Baku.

Rubio, known for his interventionist views on foreign policy, has been outspoken about Azerbaijan’s human rights record and treatment of Karabakh Armenians. In June 2023, he co-authored a bill to condemn Azerbaijan’s blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh and impose sanctions on the country. He has also been a vocal critic of the Aliyev administration’s crackdown on political opponents and dissenters.

Rubio’s appointment could fan fears in Baku that US foreign policy might follow up on a pledge Trump made in October on social media, providing strong backing for Armenia in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process: “When I am President, I will protect persecuted Christians, I will work to stop the violence and ethnic cleansing, and we will restore PEACE between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Trump wrote.

Some Azerbaijani pundits are having a rethink about the next four years.

“At this point, it is hard to say what the Trump administration will practically mean for the South Caucasus, as many uncertainties remain. Much will depend on how the Trump administration prioritizes this region, but so far, it has never been among its top 10 priorities,” Baku-based analyst Shujaat Ahmadzade wroteon X. 

Given Trump’s fondness for strongman-style governance, as practiced by Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Georgian Dream leaders in Tbilisi are likely hoping Trump’s return will ease Western pressure for democratic reforms on Tbilisi, given that their policy course has received Orban’s endorsement. But some regional experts note that Trump’s return may have a major economic downside for Georgian Dream and other governments in the region.

While Trump aligns ideologically with Georgian Dream, that commonality is likely to be overshadowed by his general lack of attention to the region, said Julie George, professor of comparative politics at the City University of New York. 

“My expectation is that a Trump administration would be quite inactive about the Caucasus, especially in the realm of democracy promotion and economic aid,” George said. Georgia is one of the largest recipients of US aid in the region, receiving more than $150 million in 2023, according to US government data. Trump has hinted at slashing funding for programs that don’t present a clear and obvious benefit to US interests.

“The election of Trump comes from many components of the American mood, one of which is more isolationist and less interested in international development spending,” George explained. “The new generation of leadership is not wedded to Cold War alliances and hierarchies and does not view Russian imperialism with the same urgency as previous generations did.”

The Trump presidency could also deliver a different sort of surprise for Georgian Dream. Specifically, Trump has a long-standing relationship with Georgian opposition figure and former president Mikheil Saakashvili, stretching back to Trump’s pre-presidential days when he explored building a Trump-banded tower in the Black Sea city of Batumi. Saakashvili promoted the project heavily and even brought Trump to Georgia for a PR tour. Trump reciprocated by calling Saakashvili his “new friend” and lauding the Georgian leader’s business acumen.

“We are going to have [a] lot of fun and lots of success together,” Trump said in 2011.

Although the Batumi tower project fizzled, the two appeared to remain on good terms: Saakashvili publicly backed Trump during the latter’s first term in office. Given the high value that Trump places on personal relationships, it’s possible Saakashvili, now imprisoned, could revive a channel of communication with Trump that has vexing implications for Georgian Dream officials. 

The open questions surrounding US policy during Trump’s second term are already scrambling the geopolitical calculus in the Caucasus, said Ahmadzade, the Baku-based expert.

“Smaller countries like Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia will likely need to accelerate efforts to recalibrate their relationships with other major powers, including Russia and China,” he wrote.