Analysts are cautioning that a diplomatic spat between Turkey and Israel is damaging an already strained relationship, and may further undermine Israel's public image in Turkey.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's vocal criticism of Israel since last January's war in Gaza put a chill on the relations. But a Turkish television show portraying Israelis as baby snatchers, along with a humiliating dressing down of the Turkish ambassador by Israeli officials, brought relations between the formerly close allies to the brink.
"I think we're going towards a split of some kind because Erdogan seems fairly intent on keeping his position, and there are people in Israel [who] seem intent on picking on his words and responding in kind. This doesn't suggest there will be a thaw in the relations any time soon," said Semih Idiz, a foreign affairs columnist with Milliyet, a Turkish daily.
In pictures broadcast around the Middle East, Turkish Ambassador Oguz Celikkol was shown being made to wait January 11 by the Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon. Then, Celikkol had to sit on a humiliatingly low sofa. News reports caught Ayalon instructing the cameramen in Hebrew to catch the seating arrangement and to show that only an Israeli flag is on the table between him and the Turkish envoy.
Ayalon on January 13 initially issued a tepid half-apology for the dressing down. But after Turkey threatened to recall its ambassador, Ayalon sent a more detailed personal apology to Celikkol. Israeli experts say the undiplomatic treatment of the Turkish envoy was the result of accumulating frustration over the steady criticism that Erdogan has aimed at Israel during the past year.
"The message was: 'we've had enough.' It's simple," said Ephraim Inbar, an expert on Turkey-Israel relations at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Israel's Bar-Ilan University. "Erdogan has taken things too far. It might have not been the best treatment for an ambassador, but it came from the gut. The signal is that we're not going to take it anymore."
In recent months, Erdogan has also started chiding other countries for worrying about Iran's possible quest for nuclear weapons, while saying nothing about Israel's nuclear arsenal.
Israel and Turkey had been close allies. The strategic importance of the relationship, though, appeared to be downgraded by Ankara, as Turkish officials began steadily improving its relations with its Arab and Muslim neighbors.
During a January 11 news conference with Lebanese Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Erdogan again laid into Israel. "They (the Israelis) have disproportionate capabilities and power and they use them. ... They do not abide by UN resolutions. ... They say they will do what they like," Erdogan said.
In a statement released soon after, Israel's Foreign Ministry replied with its own harsh words. "The Foreign Ministry condemns Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's unbridled tongue-lashing," the ministry said in a statement. "Israel is sensitive to Turkey's honor and seeks good bilateral ties, but we expect reciprocity."
Israel's image continues to suffer in the eyes of Turkish media outlets and popular culture. In "Ayrilik," a series shown by Turkey's state broadcaster, Israeli soldiers were portrayed as zombie-like killers who shot at little children without remorse. "Kurtlar Vadisi," the show behind the latest diplomatic dustup between Turkey and Israel, is a long-running series that offers a fictionalized take on current events with a heavy nationalist slant. This season, the show's storyline has revolved around the fictionalized work of Israeli agents in Turkey.
The outrage generated in Turkey over the treatment of the Turkish ambassador in Israel is likely to further damage Israel's public image among Turks. "The word 'scandal' is not enough to describe this move," Onur Oymen, a former diplomat and deputy leader of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), said on January 12. "Apologize, You Shameless Creature," was the headline of the January 13 edition of the daily Haberturk.
Reports in the Israeli press suggested, meanwhile, that part of the ministry's undiplomatic response might have been dictated by domestic politics and power struggles within Israel's coalition government. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is also leader of the left-leaning Labor party, is due to visit to Turkey on January 17 for a fence-mending visit. According to reports, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the more hard-line Israel Britain party, opposes Barak's efforts at diplomacy.
Milliyet's Idiz said this latest spat between Turkey and Israel call into question just how much fence-mending Barak could actually achieve. "Even if Barak's visit is successful, the question is still when the next eruption will be. I think the career diplomats on both sides are trying to control things, but there are loose cannons out there and they are doing what loose cannons usually do," he says.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.