Skip to main content

Eurasianet

Main Menu

  • Regions
  • Topics
  • Media
  • About
  • Search
  • Newsletter
  • русский
  • Support us
X

Caucasus

Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia

Central Asia

Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

Conflict Zones

Abkhazia
Nagorno Karabakh
South Ossetia

Eastern Europe

Belarus
Moldova
Russia
The Baltics
Ukraine

Eurasian Fringe

Afghanistan
China
EU
Iran
Mongolia
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
X

Environment

Economy

Politics

Kazakhstan's Bloody January 2022
Kyrgyzstan 2020 unrest

Security

Society

American diplomats in Central Asia
Arts and Culture
Coronavirus
Student spotlight
X

Visual Stories

Podcast
Video

Blogs

Tamada Tales
The Bug Pit

Podcasts

EurasiaChat
Expert Opinions
The Central Asianist
X
You can search using keywords to narrow down the list.
Turkey

Turkey Stands to Benefit From Caspian Basin Energy Competition

Igor Torbakov Feb 17, 2006

Turkey is emerging as the key player in the scramble over Caspian Basin energy reserves. Russia views energy cooperation Turkey as a major component of its geopolitical strategy to expand Moscow's diplomatic reach. The European Union, meanwhile, finds Turkey increasingly attractive as an alternative source of energy.

Maneuvering in connection with Caspian Basin energy has increased dramatically since early January, when a pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine caused disruptions in energy supplies to EU nations. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. With all sides seeking to diversify their export/import options, the timing couldn't be better for Turkey.

Russia is eager to reduce its reliance on Ukraine as a transit nation for exports to Western Europe. In early February, Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas monopoly, held talks in Ankara with Turkish officials and energy executives, including Energy Minister Hilmi Guler, on boosting energy cooperation. The discussions produced pledges to explore an expansion of natural gas exports to EU states, especially Italy and Greece, via the Blue Stream pipeline stretching under the Black Sea. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russian and Turkish officials also said they would pursue a pipeline extension project to boost exports to Israel and Lebanon. A formal agreement of that extension could come as soon as April, Turkish and Russian officials indicated. In addition, officials mulled the construction of a natural gas storage facility in Turkey's Anatolia region.

"We consider Turkey as a reliable partner to transit gas to third countries," Miller said at a news conference following his talks with Guler. "Recent developments in Ukraine indicate that a new pipeline has to be laid down across the Black Sea to run parallel with Blue Stream."

At present, the Blue Stream natural gas pipeline operates at less than one-third of its planned annual capacity of 16 billion cubic meters. In 2005, just 5 billion cubic meters were pumped via the underwater conduit from Russia to Turkey. Even so, Russian political and business leaders have pressed for an expansion of the pipeline's capacity. For example, during Blue Stream's official opening ceremony last November, Russian President Vladimir Putin energetically advanced the idea of building the second thread of the pipeline.

Gazprom's push to expand energy links with Turkey fits nicely into the Kremlin's strategy to restore Russia's geopolitical influence, which was greatly diminished by the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. According to Russia's strategic economic plan, endorsed in 2003, the Russian government should use the country's "energy complex" to advance its domestic and foreign policy agenda. "The role of the country in world energy markets determines its geopolitical influence," the strategic plan states.Kremlin strategists in recent years have expanded their focus beyond the utilization of Russia's own abundant energy reserves, and have sought to increase Russia's control over pipelines. To encourage Turkish cooperation with Russian export plans, Moscow is seeking to increase Ankara's already heavy dependence Russian energy.

By proposing gas deliveries to Greece and Italy via Turkey, Russia hopes to bolster its image as a reliable energy supplier in the eyes of the EU. Some analysts also suggest that Moscow efforts to expand its influence in southeastern Europe is motivated by a geopolitical desire to "asymmetrically" offset the United States' growing military-strategic influence in the Black Sea area, especially in Georgia. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Although Russia's Caspian Basin energy position is strong, it remains to be seen whether the Kremlin can achieve the level of control over export routes that it desires. Energy competition in the region, already fierce, stands to become cut-throat in the coming years. Indeed, at the same time Gazprom's Miller was visiting Ankara, Turkish Prime Minister announced that the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, with a projected annual capacity of 20 billion cubic meters, would be finished by the end of 2006.

European policymakers and energy analysts, many of them wary of becoming too dependent on Russian-controlled energy, welcomed Erdogan's announcement. Indeed, there are indications that the EU is working hard to frustrate Russia's export designs. Calls for a reexamination of the EUs energy-security policy have grown louder in recent months, with analysts urging rapid action to diversify energy import sources.

Increased European interest in diversification could invigorate two pipeline projects. One is the Nabucco route that would transport gas from the Caspian Basin and Middle East via Turkey to southeastern Europe. The other is a proposed Trans-Caspian pipeline, which would enable Turkmenistan to link its considerable natural gas reserves with Azerbaijan's export network. The Nabucco project has long been clouded by an uncertain construction timeline, while the Trans-Caspian initiative remains stalled by a variety of factors, including disagreements over the price of Turkmen gas.

If one or both of projects is ever realized, Russia's energy position in the region would be seriously threatened. If Turkey emerges as an energy transit hub, as some analysts predict, Ankara could eliminate its dependence of costly Russian gas. As economic expert Vladimir Milov noted in a recent analysis published in the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, Gazprom would be taking a considerable risk if it gets its wish and is able to build another natural gas pipeline to Turkey. Russia's Caspian Basin energy dreams could easily turn into an economic nightmare for the Kremlin.

Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York; and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University. He is now based in Istanbul, Turkey.

Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.

Related

Russia's Ukraine war continues to impact Azerbaijan's oil sector
Tajiks skeptical about government earthquake plans
Azerbaijan's borders remain shut three years after pandemic began

Popular

Baku pushes rights of "Western Azerbaijan" in negotiations with Yerevan
Joshua Kucera
Kyrgyzstan: Personalistic regime reveals cracks in the system
Ayzirek Imanaliyeva
Azerbaijan's strict customs regulations face renewed criticism

Eurasianet

  • About
  • Team
  • Contribute
  • Republishing
  • Privacy Policy
  • Corrections
  • Contact
Eurasianet © 2023