After weeks of intense negotiations among Afghan, American, British and Turkish officials, Turkey's government has finally accepted command of the international peacekeeping force in Kabul - if only "in principle." Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit declared after meeting Afghan interim Prime Minister Hamid Karzai in Ankara on April 4 that "it is a great honor for Turkey" to take command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which the British have run since its inception. As Turkey takes control, the recent heightening in tension and violence in the Afghan capital raises the worry that the country might be entering a military and political quagmire.
In early 2002, Turkey had seemed enthusiastic about taking command when the current six-month term for British leadership ends in late April. However, doubts later emerged - mainly regarding the exact terms of ISAF's mandate and the financial burden that taking charge would place on a nation still trying to recover from last year's financial meltdown. [For background, see EurasiaNet's Business and Economics archive]. British and US mediators then flew to Ankara to negotiate on Turkey's concerns, a process which is still continuing. In a March 29 statement, parties have agreed on the financial aspects, with the United States promising some $228 million of aid - $28 million of which will go directly to supporting Turkey's command role in ISAF.
Turkey remains committed only "in principle" because of more nettlesome concerns. These include the length of the ISAF mission and the role of other countries - which Ankara fears may pull out without providing for backup to Turkish troops. Earlier this month, Ankara dispatched Major General Akin Zorlu to Kabul to assess take-over arrangements with the British. Zorlu is reported to have requested that the British headquarters leave behind much of its equipment - including vital satellite communications systems - or risk major delays in the Turkish deployment.
Turkish officials are calling American promises of aid inadequate. The C-130 transport planes the United States has promised are not enough, according to the Turks, who want bigger aircraft and more of them. Turkey's General Staff now says commanders will need some 1,600 additional Turkish soldiers to take over the ISAF operation, including 300 to provide security at Kabul airport. Currently, Turkey maintains a force of some 267 troops in the Afghan capital, who are working alongside soldiers from the UK, France, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany.
More broadly, ISAF's scope and strategy make Turkey nervous. As its mandate currently dictates, ISAF will help protect Karzai's interim administration until its term ends after the Loya Jirga (Grand Council) meets in June. The force also promises to train a new Afghan police force and army. All this is to be done strictly within the city limits of Kabul though, with no ISAF mandate for operations outside the capital - despite fervent requests from Afghan officials for such an expansion.
Ecevit himself had earlier questioned the logic of that restriction, as security concerns are much greater in the rest of the battered country. However, it seems that during the negotiations, the United States in particular was adamant that it did not want ISAF widening its area of operations outside Kabul. Turkey may yet push harder on this issue; Karzai gave Ecevit and his colleagues entrée to do so during his trip to Ankara. "Afghans outside of Kabul would like to see the extension of the peacekeeping force as a guarantee of continued security," he told reporters in the Turkish capital. He then added that as Turkey was de facto taking over command of ISAF, it was up to Ankara to determine the mandate of its command.
Hence Ankara's dilemma. Ecevit and President Ahmed Sezer know that expanding ISAF to the relatively lawless Afghan provinces would put soldiers in harm's way, yet Ecevit is on record as saying that such expansion makes strategic sense. "Karzai wants the international force to operate outside Kabul as well," says Turkish Daily News columnist Mehmet Ali Birand. "Meanwhile, the countries that contribute to that force are extremely reticent on this issue. They know that if the international force operates outside Kabul it will be faced with enormous risks." So Turkey may be hedging its bets, taking a better read of the security situation around Afghanistan.
Recent news has been discouraging. At the same time as the Afghan leader was in Ankara, reports were also arriving of an attempted coup in Kabul against his government, widely blamed on the opposition forces of former Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. [For more information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A day after Karzai departed the Turkish capital, ISAF troops also came under fire in Kabul, and a day after that, an assassination attempt was mounted against Karzai's defense minister, Mohammed Fahim. [For more information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Just how much security there is in "safe" Kabul too was therefore quickly a matter of concern in Turkey.
"If Turkey takes command of ISAF," says Metin Kanca from Istanbul's Marmara University, "then they will be in charge when Karzai's interim government mandate comes to an end. They'll also be there when the Afghan parliament meets to decide what to do next [in building a government]." These will probably be disorienting, unstable months in Kabul and beyond. "Turkish troops may find themselves caught in the middle," says Kanca.
During his visit, Karzai himself moved to head off Turkish fears in this regard. "The security of the Turkish soldiers is guaranteed," he told journalists in Ankara. Prime Minister Ecevit told reporters: "Afghanistan is now led by a government of hope. We feel obliged to support such an administration." He added that Turkey would also be providing educational and medical aid to the war-torn country.
In the fragile region, a commitment in principle may be disastrous to break. With Turkey now laying plans for its deployment, many of its citizens hope that Karzai's guarantees can somehow hold water in uncertain times.
Jon Gorvett is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul.
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