The stunning results of Turkey's November 3 elections, in which a moderate Islamic party captured an outright parliamentary majority, could usher in significant change in the country's political system. Over the nearer term, however, the victorious Justice and Development Party (AKP) must convince powerful constituencies that it will not seek to radically change the country's secular political framework.
Serving as an effective popular rejection of the status quo, the election elevated the AKP to a dominant position in Turkey's political landscape. The AKP won 34.2 percent of the vote, securing 363 of the 550 seats in parliament. The center-left People's Republican Party (CHP) was the only other party to clear the 10 percent hurdle needed to win seats in parliament. The CHP's 19.3 percent vote share was good for 178 parliamentary seats. Nine independents also won parliamentary mandates.
The AKP's outright majority will mark the end of 15 years of cumbersome coalition governments. Yet, even though the AKP's hold over parliament is secure, the party's popular mandate to govern appears limited in part by the fact that 45 percent of voters cast ballots for parties that did not win seats in the legislature. Accordingly party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicates that an AKP-dominated government will not initiate any radical departures from current policies. Erdogan himself is banned from holding political office, due to a conviction for inciting religious hatred, and thus is expected to tap one of his lieutenants to serve as prime minister.
A party statement said the new government would work "to respect the life styles of all the citizens, to make constitutional institutions work better, to speed up the process of Turkey's entry into the European Union, and to implement an economic program that would strengthen Turkey's integration into world economy."
Such statements are designed primarily to reassure several powerful constituencies in Turkey, especially the military, which since the foundation of modern Turkey has acted as the custodian of the secular political tradition. To reinforce the AKP's desire to establish a good working relationship with Turkey's top generals, deputy party leader Abdullah Gul, who some analysts say may become the next prime minister, told the British Broadcasting Corp. that "we are proud of our army. They are part of this country."
AKP leaders at the same time stress their support for democratic political principles. They characterize their political party as comprising Muslim democrats, or a Turkish version of Christian democrats in many Western European states. "We are a conservative democratic party. Conservative means values of the country are taken into account," Gul said
Regardless of the AKP's efforts to present itself as supporting evolutionary change, the voting results may have revolutionary implications for Turkey's political system. Four mainstream political parties were swept from the playing field, including the current government leader, Bulent Ecevit, and his Democratic Left Party, which gained only 1.2 percent of the vote. The disastrous poll showings have already prompted the resignations of three party leaders the Nationalist Movement's Devlet Bahceli, the True Path Party's Tansu Ciller and the Motherland Party's Mesut Yilmaz. Ecevit, meanwhile, has announced his retirement from politics, although he was appointed November 4 as a care-taker prime minister until the formation of the new government.
A significant sign of the electorate's disillusionment with the political establishment was the fact that the Young Party, led by media mogul Cem Uzan, gained 7 percent of the vote. Uzan, who some Turkish political observers have compared with Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, is currently being sued in international courts by Motorola and Nokia for fraud. He based his campaign on populist slogans, including promises of dramatic tax cuts and a pledge to cut ties with the International Monetary Fund, which is helping guide the country's economy recovery. [For additional information see the EurasiaNet Business and Economics archive]. In addition, many voters appeared to overlook Uzan's involvement in one of Turkey's banking scandals in early 90s. Those scandals hit the savings of a significant number of working class Turks.
Over time, the election results may help break a debilitating political cycle that left the old decision-making elite increasingly at odds with the electorate. The old establishment has vigorously defended the secular political tradition, while the electorate has showed a growing willingness to allow for moderate religious expression in the country's civic life. The electorate also has pushed for increasing official recognition of the economic hardships that many Turks confront. The near total overhaul of the Turkish political landscape could end up encouraging wider participation in political life and more responsive government agencies.
That so many entrenched political parties have been effectively reduced to non-entities could lead to lasting changes in voting patterns. The results underscore that voter allegiance to a particular political party is more tenuous than ever, and that the electorate is inclined to cast ballots based on tactical considerations, or to protest the lack of results achieved by incumbent authority.
While it is difficult to make predictions on how effective the AKP will be in leading Turkey, the immediate reaction by Turkish financial markets was favorable. Stocks surged November 4 and the country's currency, the lira, gained slightly in value against the US dollar. In the coming months, there is a full and complicated agenda: Turkey will have to deal with the conditions imposed on it by its geography. A possible US offensive against Iraq looms, as well as a possible European Union decision to set a date for the start of accession talks. Finding a solution to the Cyprus issue is part of the equation. Continuing implementation of the IMF-supported reform program will also be a top priority.
Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist group.
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