Turkmenistan's mercurial leader, Saparmurat Niyazov, has carried out a thorough reshuffle of top officials in the country's state security apparatus and border control service. Some observers say the personnel moves are indicative of growing discontent with Niyazov's authoritarian rule. Others suggest the Turkmen leader sought to punish those held responsible for a series of top-level defections from Niyazov's team to the fast-growing political opposition.

Niyazov's purge began March 4 with an announcement that Mukhammed Nazarov had been relieved of his duties as chief legal advisor to the president and coordinator of law enforcement and the military. Nazarov retained his position as Chairman of the KNB - the Committee on National Security, successor to the Soviet-era KGB - but he was demoted in his military rank, and rebuked for mismanagement.

In addition, Niyazov removed two of Nazarov's deputies, Col. Hait Kakaev, head of National Security in the capitol, Ashgabat, and Lt. Col. Orazmuhammed Berdiev. Kakaev and Berdiev were both removed on grounds of "serious mismanagement in their work, and inability to perform their duties." They were stripped of their military rank, medals, and benefits enjoyed by military personnel. Subsequently, Niyazov has ousted numerous regional security officials.

Among the charges leveled against security committee officials are abuse of power, unlawful searches and arrests, bribery, interference in the affairs of other law enforcement agencies, drug trafficking and "gossip." The overhaul is significant because until just over a week ago the state security apparatus had been seen as a crucial pillar of support for Niyazov's authoritarian rule. Now, an organization that helped keep the population in line finds itself under suspicion.

In addition to the shakeups within the KNB, Niyazov on March 5 sacked the head of the State's Border Guards Service, Terkesh Termayev, who also was demoted in military rank. Termayev was reassigned to a relatively minor post in the security apparatus.

The reshuffle marks a rapid swing in Niyazov's policies. According to a human rights report, recently released by the US State Department, Niyazov only within the last year gave Nazarov additional responsibilities to supervise both the military and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Although Nazarov has thus far retained his position as Chairman of the KNB, analysts predict his tenure is questionable.

Observers point to a number of reasons for the sudden shake-up in the security services. Some of Niyazov's televised comments indicate that he seeks scapegoats to blame for the stagnation of Turkmenistan's social and economic development.

"The authorities of the Security Committee in towns, districts and regions have begun to breach order. Staff from the central security committee have begun to take bribes, become conceited, begun to spread gossip. It is not understandable," Turkmen television quoted Niyazov as saying during a cabinet meeting March 4.

"I have said several times to Nazarov: 'your duties are not this, do not do this, maintain honesty,'" Niyazov continued. "We should clean up the Security Committee. Its staff should be devoted to the country - otherwise it will be very difficult to live."

Meanwhile, Moscow-based Arkady Dubnov of Vremya Novostei asserted that Niyazov acted out of anger, wanting to punish those that he holds responsible for a series of politically embarrassing defections in recent months.

A number of top-level Turkmen political leaders have come out in opposition to Niyazov. The most prominent politician to join the opposition is Boris Shikhmuradov, Turkmenistan's former Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to China. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Other high-level officials to announce their opposition to Niyazov include Nurmuhammed Hanamov, Turkmenistan's Ambassador to Turkey; Khudaiberdy Orazov, the former chairman of the Central Bank and a deputy prime minister; and Pirjan Kurbanov, Turkmenistan's Ambassador to the Arab Emirates. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Additionally, according to Shikhmuradov, and as reported by Arkady Dubnov in Vremya Novostei, Chary Annaberdiev, Minister-Counselor at the Embassy of Turkmenistan in the United States, disappeared from the Embassy about a month ago. He has made no statements, but according to Dubnov, Niyazov raised the question of Annaberdiev's whereabouts in a meeting on March 4 with US Ambassador to Turkmenistan, Laura Kennedy. What is certainly clear is that the growing list of defections is a source of considerable concern to Niyazov.

Since Shikhmuradov's defection last November, it appears Turkmenistan is experiencing a so-called second wave of opposition emigration. Writing in the Russian daily Izvestia, Svetlana Babayeva noted that although the growth of the Turkmen opposition movement cannot be described as explosive, the defections of leading politicians can no longer be considered isolated cases.

During 1993-1994, Turkmenistan experienced its first wave of emigration, as numerous members of the country's intelligentsia fled the country. Many sought refuge in Moscow. Others settled in Europe, primarily in Scandinavian countries. Most of those from the first wave aligned themselves with Avdy Kuliev's Unified Democratic Opposition of Turkmenistan. A decade ago, Kuliev, independent Turkmenistan's first Foreign Minister, became the first top official to declare himself in opposition to Niyazov's regime.

Members of this early emigration were primarily writers, historians and political scientists. Others also departed for economic reasons. Ethnic Slavs also left, feeling increasingly unwelcome in Turkmenistan as the country moved rapidly to promote the Turkmen language and culture at the expense of Russian. Turkmen demographer and historian Shokhrat Kadyrov estimates that up to 150,000 immigrants from Turkmenistan presently live in the Moscow region.

Niyazov's opponents have so far failed to coordinate their positions and policies. Distrust has marked interactions between those from the first wave of emigration and those of the second. In January 2002, Shikhmuradov created the Provisional Executive Council of the People's Democratic Movement of Turkmenistan. A heated exchange of opinion quickly erupted between the followers of Kuliev and those of Shikhmuradov with each side criticizing the other over the strategy and tactics of bringing about Niyazov's ouster.

In recent weeks, the discussion has cooled somewhat. Knowledgeable sources say Shikhmuradov and Kuliev have entered into a private dialogue to explore the possibility of merging their strength and energy in the struggle against Niyazov's regime.

At present, it appears that Shikhmuradov and Kuliev are following parallel paths towards the same goal, that of influencing the international community. Shikhmuradov recently met with members of the OSCE in Europe, while Kuliev, traveling with Nazar Suyunov, the former Minister of Oil and Gas, and with Makhtum Abdelkarim, spiritual leader of Afghan Turkmens, met with members of the Central Asia Desk at the US State Department.

Shikhmuradov and his colleagues advocate holding presidential elections this year in accordance with the constitution, which was amended in 1999 to grant Niyazov president-for-life status.

To date, Moscow and Washington have tolerated Niyazov's extravagances. Yet Niyazov has long been considered a major stumbling block in the Caspian delimitation negotiations. Given his tepid support of the US-led war against terrorism, Niyazov may be testing the patience of both Moscow and Washington.

The private sector already seems to be losing patience to do business in Turkmenistan. The oil and gas conglomerate ExxonMobil has announced plans to close down its offices in Ashgabat and in the regional center of Balkanabad. Analysts had estimated ExxonMobil's potential investment in Turkmenistan at up to $10 billion. The conglomerate's decision, which company executives attributed to disappointing exploration results, casts a shadow over Turkmenistan's development plans.

Given Niyazov's record, more shakeups and repressions can be expected as he fights to strengthen his control. Shikhmuradov predicts additional high level defections in the near future. Kuliev claims 4,000 supporters inside the country. Clearly the opposition is gaining momentum, and Niyazov's once seemingly monolithic regime is showing evidence of cracking under pressure.