Russian President Dmitry Medvedev came away empty-handed from his trip to Ashgabat last week -- no agreements of any kind were signed. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov didn't get anything out of the meeting, either, except a chance to drop the news that Russian trade is still growing despite the past year of troubled relations, and now stands at $1.8 billion so far this year, EurasiaNet reported. This is largely due to commerce with Russia's regions of Tatarstan, Astrakhan, and the city of St. Petersburg, as Turkmenistan still buys everything from ships and weaponry to tractors and computers from Russia.

Yet what Ashgabat will not be doing next year is selling more gas to Russia -- President Medvedev made it clear that Russia’s state energy monopoly Gazprom will not restore its former orders of more than 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) and cannot even be counted on to go beyond the 10-11 bcm currently purchased this year. Moscow is also apparently concerned about Turkmenistan as a new competitor with China, says Sergei Blagov in a post for EurasiaNet. Turkmenistan expects to add to its existing pipeline to China to export up to 40 bcm per year; meanwhile the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation has only tentatively agreed to buy 30 bcm from Russia starting in 2015, although the two sides have not settled on a price.

Both leaders agreed to postpone the long-stalled Prikaspiisky pipeline project while demand was still so low due to the global recession. Vice Premier Igor Sechin, in an interview with Russia's business daily Kommersant, was candid about the Kremlin's agenda in Ashgabat, aside from pledges of mutual friendship and academic exchanges: getting in on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. Vice Premier Igor Sechin said that Gazprom is prepared to join TAPI in any capacity, as financer or contractor. Kommersant characterized this as a bold initiative, as Gazprom would be investing in a risky proposition that involves laying pipe across Taliban-held territory. The TAPI consortium has talked about bidding out the job to a “global energy giant” but hasn’t specified which one. President Berdymukhamedov and the Turkmen state media had no comment on the prospect of Russia joining TAPI.

According to Turkmen diplomats interviewed by Kommersant, President Berdymukhamedov, who until recently has refused to put his cards on the table regarding the Western-backed project for the southern corridor, is "growing more interested in Nabucco day by day." His interest may be coming too late. Germany's gas giant RWE is now talking to Azerbaijan and Iraq about making up the gas deliveries needed for the expensive line -- estimated at $11 billion and growing -- that in the end will only deliver about 30 billion cubic meters (bcm). RWE’s Stefan Judisch says there may not be room for Turkmen gas, if deals work out with Azerbaijan and Iraq. Richard Morningstar, U.S. envoy for Eurasian energy, said in a speech in Washington, DC that Turkmenistan is unlikely to contribute its gas to the Nabucco project, and that will get started anyway without Ashgabat. Of course, these Western skeptics may be engaging in a tactic of playing hard-to-get, after their over-enthusiasm in courting Turkmenistan only led to recalcitrance and even a reprimand for RWE, when it jumped the gun earlier this year in announcing Turkmenistan's participation in Nabucco.

Maybe Ashgabat does not need Nabucco -- or it can afford to wait for the dilatory Western investors to line up their cash first. Last week Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov met with his Iranian counterpart, who praised Turkmenistan's peaceful and good neighborly policy (so unlike the West's hostility to Iran), and indicated Iran would boost its purchase of Turkmen gas from 8 bcm to 14 bcm in the coming year, with even more anticipated. Iran has talked expansively before about its plan for more deliveries, but hasn't always actually ordered the additional gas, and also went through a nasty patch several winters ago, when Ashgabat turned off the spigot in 2007 during a cold snap because Iran didn't arrange its hard-currency payments.

President Karimov also visited Ashgabat last week, to cement improving ties with Turkmenistan that had suffered badly when past dictator Saparmurat Niyazov accused Uzbekistan of backing an alleged coup attempt against him in 2002. Security concerns remain, however, as Turkmen military forcibly removed Dashoguz residents who had already been once settled even further away from the Turkmen-Uzbek border, forcing them to break down and rebuild their homes. A friendship festival with the usual unpaid and coerced performers was staged, but the real reason for the trip seemed to be an occasion for the two leaders to compare notes about their relations with Russia and with other Central Asian neighbors.

The Uzbek leaders wants to keep Turkmenistan on board with his resistance to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both upstream countries that threaten the water supply needed by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for their cotton crops. Uzbekistan is also something of a competitor with Moscow for Turkmen gas, and also sells gas to Russia, but for a different price than Turkmenistan, says Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. The anodyne communique in the Turkmen state media following the meeting of the two Central Asian leaders did not indicate any final agreement, but their talks were all about aligning positions for other summits, including the forthcoming meeting of Caspian littoral state leaders. Nezavisimaya Gazeta speculated -- erroneously as it turned out -- that Medvedev, Karimov, and Berdymukhamedov might all in fact meet together in Ashgabat to discuss another regional topic -- the possibility of a Caspian security summit. Russia has been shopping its security concerns from the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) -- where Turkmenistan is not a member and Uzbekistan is only a reluctant and critical participant in some activities.

In the second round of the OSCE Review Meeting in Vienna which opened October 19, once again protests from the Turkmen delegation stalled the applications of three Turkmen human rights activists who tried to register for the meeting. After a day of protest led by the U.S., the activists were admitted -- causing the Turkmen delegation to walk out. Turkmenistan has threatened to boycott the OSCE's summit in Astana in December if Kazakhstan, the current chair-in-office, allows independent Turkmen NGOs to attend the meeting. These Turkmens are waiting to see if Kazakhstan will issue them a visa to travel to Astana.