For much of 2002, international observers questioned whether Niyazov's grip on Turkmenistan was slipping. They pointed to the defections of several high-profile former political allies and the growth of an opposition movement in exile as evidence that Niyazov's days as Turkmenistan's leader might be numbered. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. But the country's political calculus has shifted dramatically since the failed November 25 assassination attempt, [for additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive] and doubt about Niyazov's authority have dissipated.
In recent weeks, Niyazov has thoroughly neutralized the exile-led effort to oust him, aided by the capture and imprisonment of leading assassination conspirators, in particular former foreign minister Boris Shikhmuradov. The Turkmen leader has also struck a security cooperation deal with Russia, under which Turkmen opposition leaders will be effectively denied a vital base for future activities.
"Niyazov now sits in a stronger position than ever," a political observer who follows Turkmen developments closely said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Many people believe Niyazov to be a rather stupid person, but he should not be underestimated. He knows how to play the very dangerous political game."
Turkmen authorities have arrested dozens in connection with the assassination conspiracy. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. By far the most stunning development has been the December 26 announcement that Shikhmuradov had been apprehended.
The circumstances surrounding Shikhmuradov's capture remain murky. A statement posted on a Turkmen opposition web site suggests that Shikhmuradov gave himself up to spare others from persecution, and to put an end to mass arrests. Meanwhile, Turkmen authorities assert that Shikhmuradov was in Turkmenistan at the time of the November 25 assassination attempt, entering the country via Uzbekistan with the assistance of Uzbek officials. Uzbekistan has denied assisting Shikhmuradov.
Turkmen officials say that after the assassination attempt failed, Uzbek diplomats attempted to resmuggle Shikhmuradov out of the country. In their pursuit of Shikhmuradov, local inhabitants provided authorities with information on the opposition leader's whereabouts, the Interfax news agency reported December 26. According to an informed source, Turkmen security forces succeeded in blocking Shikhmuradov's attempt to flee via Iran. Trapped, Shikhmuradov apparently decided to surrender.
In the days following his arrest, Shikhmuradov made a televised confession in which he described Niyazov as "a gift given to the Turkmen nation from above."
"The attempts to realize one's own criminal intentions, to change the situation in the country for one's own benefit, turn out to be a form of terror against people. It needs to be stopped," Shikhmuradov said on Turkmen television December 29.
One Turkmen observer insisted that Shikhmuradov's confession was the product of torture and mind-altering drugs administered in custody. The observer, citing conversations with an eyewitness, said those detained in connection with the assassination attempt are systematically tortured.
Having broken the back of the opposition-in-exile movement, Niyazov now appears intent to make certain that it never makes a recovery. The Turkmen leader changed the country's legal code to enable Shikhmuradov to receive a life sentence. And Turkmen television reported January 2 that the People's Council adopted a resolution that states: "No acts of amnesty, pardon or other acts of mercy are to be applied to those who have committed a terrorist act and made an attempt on the life of Turkmenistan's president."
Niyazov also appears to be targeting civil society activists. For example, authorities on December 26 charged Farid Tukhbatullin the head of an environmental non-governmental organization, the Dashaauz Ecological Club with being an accessory to the assassination attempt. If convicted, Tukhbatullin faces an up to four-year prison term.
"Implicating a politically unaffiliated civic leader sends a chilling message," Erika Dailey, the Director of the Turkmenistan Project of the New York-based Open Society Institute said in a December 30 letter addressed to Niyazov.
In addition, Niyazov has taken steps to strengthen security ties with Russia. During a two-day visit to Ashgabat by Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushaylo, Turkmenistan and Russia agreed to forge a new bilateral security agreement during the first half of 2003. "We consider the incident [assassination attempt] as a manifestation of terrorism, and we are ready to cooperate in the context of law-enforcement bodies and secret services," Rushaylo said at a January 3 news conference.
Perhaps most significant from Niyazov's standpoint, a protocol signed by Turkmenistan and Russia will aim to simplify extradition procedures and also clarify questions relating to dual Russian-Turkmen citizens. Many of the leaders implicated in the assassination attempt hold both Russian and Turkmen citizenship. Russia traditionally has been a major center of activity for opposition leaders. If implemented, the new measures would expose Turkmen exiles in Russia to a heightened risk of extradition if they continued to carry on anti-Niyazov activities.
In striking a deal with Niyazov, Russia hopes to extend its influence in Central Asia. In recent months, the Kremlin has sought to restore its geopolitical position in the region, which had eroded in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Even though Rushaylo characterized his five hours of talks with Niyazov as "quite constructive," there are indications that Niyazov's mercurial manner will continue to vex Moscow. Not only is Moscow interested in enhancing its position regarding oil and gas expoprts, it is also eager to protect Russian cultural interests. In recent years, Niyazov has acted to dramatically curtail access to Russian culture, including television broadcasts and Russian-language education.
Rushaylo reported no progress in the effort to forge an accord on Caspian Sea territorial boundaries. "Russia and Turkmenistan still have a number of unresolved problems regarding the status of the Caspian Sea," Rushaylo said.
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