Central Asian leaders are converging on Moscow for a show of loyalty to the Kremlin, centering on Victory Day celebrations May 9. Ukraine is doing its best to make the visit uncomfortable for them.

In Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Victory Day is the most important occasion on the political calendar. And this edition of the parade on Red Square has particular significance, marking the 80th anniversary of the Red Army’s triumph over Nazi Germany. It was a point of particular importance for Putin, then, that leaders of other formerly Soviet states attend the event. 

Top officials from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were all set to comply with Putin’s wishes, traveling to Moscow to observe what promises to be a grand display of militarism and nationalism. In addition, troop contingents from all five Central Asian states are expected to march in the parade. The occasion additionally offers opportunities for Central Asian attendees to hold informal discussions among themselves and other global leaders who are planning to be in Moscow, including China’s Xi Jinping.

This year’s celebrations are occurring against the backdrop of a stalemated war between Russia and Ukraine, which of late has seen Russia resort to launching increasingly deadly missile attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine, far from the front lines. 

To ensure a measure of security for the parade, with a host of leaders all congregating in one spot, Russia unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire starting May 8. 

But Ukrainian officials say they are not obligated to observe a ceasefire enabling what they view as a bacchanal of Russian propaganda. Ukraine launched drone attacks on Russia that disrupted traffic at Russian airports for several days in early May. Officials in Kyiv did not exclude the possibility of drone attacks on May 9. 

“Our position is very simple for all countries traveling to Russia on May 9: we cannot be held responsible for what happens on the territory of the Russian Federation,” the Interfax-Ukraine news agency quoted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as saying on May 3.

A Telegram channel with evident Ukrainian government connections has additionally sought to embarrass Central Asian leaders by publishing long lists of citizens of their respective countries who have signed up to fight for Russia against Ukraine. 

The channel, called Project Hochu Zhit, (I want to live) has paid particular attention to Uzbekistan, publishing the names of 1,110 Uzbek nationals who have served as mercenaries in the Russian army. Later, it posted a video featuring six Uzbeks held as POWs by Ukraine appealing directly to Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to help facilitate their release from captivity.

“On their initiative, we publish a video appeal,” read a Hochu Zhit statement that accompanied the video’s publication. “This appeal is especially relevant against the background of the planned visit of the President of Uzbekistan to the parade in Moscow on May 9. We hope that [Mirziyoyev] will raise before Putin the issue of illegal recruitment of citizens of Uzbekistan into the Russian Armed Forces and will also help with inclusion in the Russian lists for the exchange of those mercenaries who were captured in Ukraine.”

The release of the Hochu Zhit list of mercenaries caused such a social media stir in Uzbekistan that the Foreign Ministry announced May 3 an investigation into instances of alleged illegal recruitment. Uzbek law prohibits Uzbek citizens from fighting in “military actions beyond the country’s borders,” according to a report published by the semi-official Kun.uz outlet, citing a Foreign Ministry spokesman. “In case of confirmation of this data, appropriate measures will be taken.”

Putin’s efforts to carefully orchestrate the Victory Day celebrations have already experienced a setback: on May 8, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev suddenly announced the cancellation of his plans to attend the event. A caustic commentary published by a government-connected news outlet listed old and new grievances as the reason for the sudden cancellation.

“Russia has not yet started a transparent investigation of the AZAL Baku-Grozny plane crash, which was shot down by the Russian Air Force. No one has been detained, no one has been arrested, no charges have been brought against anyone,” the commentary published by the Minval.az website complained. It added that a prominent member of the Azerbaijani delegation that flew to Moscow to attend the May 9 events was denied entry with “no explanations” offered for the refusal. 

Aliyev appeared to take the incident personally. “Participating in the celebrations on May 9 in Moscow is no longer about the memory of the Second World War. This is about relations between Azerbaijan and Russia. The same relationship that, by definition, is a two-way street. But they seem to have forgotten about that fact in Moscow,” the Minval commentary added.