The United Nations Special Representative for Afghanistan, Lakhdar Brahimi, outlined the UN blueprint for the stabilization of Afghanistan in a November 13 address to the Security Council. The first stage, as Brahimi envisioned, would have a broad-based provisional government govern for two years, during which a new constitution would be adopted to guide Afghanistan's future development. A multi-national force would also be deployed in Afghanistan to guarantee security during the transition period.
"The challenge in Afghanistan is going to be the creation of good governance," Brahimi said, according to a printed version of his remarks to the Security Council. "That depends on the formulation of clear and fair rules of the game, and adherence to those rules."
Brahimi said further discussions on the formation of a two-year-provisional government could begin as early as November 15 or 16 in either Geneva or Vienna. A provisional government would seek to represent all of Afghanistan's main ethnic groups, Brahimi said, adding that it should be led by a recognized symbol of "national unity," a clear reference to former king Mohammed Zahir Shah.
Under the plan that Brahimi outlined in the Security Council, the provisional government would formulate a transitional administration and would preside over the convocation of a Loya Jirga, or grand tribal council. That body would be responsible for drafting a constitution. A second Loya Jirga would convene later to ratify the constitution, paving the way for a permanent Afghan government.
State-building issues have taken on added urgency in the wake of the Northern Alliance's lightning offensive, in which its troops have occupied Kabul, and have gained control over northern Afghanistan. Taliban forces are reportedly regrouping in their southern strongholds. The sudden Taliban collapse has raised fears of a destabilizing power vacuum in Kabul and other areas, due to the lack of a political force that is immediately capable of governing.
Two decades of warfare have stoked interethnic suspicion in Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance, which comprises Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras, is distrusted by Pashtuns, who predominate in southern Afghanistan. Both Northern Alliance and Taliban forces have engaged in widespread human rights abuses, including mass killings and looting. In recent days, Northern Alliance troops have summarily executed Taliban fighters, while the Taliban reportedly massacred hundreds of Hazara men in and around Bamiyan, near Kabul, before fleeing the area.
US officials have warned Northern Alliance forces not to engage in reprisal killings and other criminal acts in newly conquered territory. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told journalists in New York that immediate security needs would be provided by forces already on the ground in Afghanistan, mostly Northern Alliance militia and some US and British Special Forces.
Brahimi said the establishment of an international security force would be an essential element of the transition process. "Without genuine and lasting security in Afghanistan, nothing will be possible, let alone the establishment of a new government," he said. "Even a political settlement among all Afghan parties cannot on its own ensure security."
A UN official said the multi-national security force could be led by Turkey, and also possibly include troops from Indonesia and Bangladesh. Officials said the timing for deployment of the security force had not yet been determined.
In his Security Council comments, Brahimi indicated that the multi-national force should be deployed as soon as logistically possible, even before the formal cessation of hostilities. At the same time, he cautioned that such a force could easily find itself embroiled in combat. For this reason, Brahimi said a UN leadership of the security force would not be appropriate.
Brahimi said the international community should strive to avoid a repetition of events in 1992, when the Soviet-backed regime of Najibullah collapsed and Mujaheddin militia units seized control of Kabul. Those groups, many of which are now part of the Northern Alliance, could not agree on a comprehensive government framework. Disagreement quickly degenerated into fighting that left Kabul in ruins, and fueled the rise of the Taliban.
"The control of the capital of the country has immense symbolic value," Brahimi said. "Many Afghans have expressed a determination to avoid another round of such fighting, and hence are calling for Kabul to be demilitarized, and not controlled by a single faction or party," Brahimi said.
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