US Focus on Interdiction in Central Asia Is Inadequate to Meet Drug Trafficking Challenge - Expert
In striving to contain drug trafficking in Central Asia, the United States is focusing on interdiction. Policy experts contend that both the scope and the level of US current anti-trafficking efforts are inadequate to achieve the desired policy goals.
A State Department official, speaking on background, characterized narcotics trafficking as a serious threat to regional stability. While saying "direct linkages are hard to document," the official indicated it is a widely held belief in Washington that "it's hard to separate [the] drug trade and terrorists." He went on to suggest that Central Asian states are incapable of addressing the problem without outside support.
"We recognize they need some help in stopping the drug trade and it's in our interest to offer support," the official said, adding that in promoting stability in Central Asia, "we'd rather not have the drug trade to contend with."
The State Department's Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) is charged with managing US anti-trafficking efforts. It funnels much of its financial assistance for anti-trafficking measures in Central Asia through the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). The INL tends to emphasize "train and equip" programs that seek to build local capacity.
Observers have a hard time putting a precise dollar figure on Washington's anti-trafficking assistance because such programs tend to be intertwined with broader security aid packages. According to the State Department, the United States specifically earmarked $22 million in 2002 for anti-trafficking initiatives in Central Asia. The bulk of assistance dollars went to improving interdiction capabilities along the borders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
The emphasis on interdiction has carried over into 2003. The UNODC announced in June a $17 million dollar, multi-year initiative to fund Tajikistan's Drug Control Agency (DCA) and to establish a similar government body in Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan also stands to receive interdiction aid. In all three countries, US law-enforcement entities, including the FBI and Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), are involved in interdiction efforts, working with local officials to draft effective narcotics and forfeiture legislation.
"We're spending a fair amount of resources through organizations like UNODC where governmental institutions are fragile and weak, and our [US] embassies are small. We feel more comfortable building up those [Central Asian governmental] institutions through the UNODC under such circumstances," said a State Department official, speaking on background.
Available evidence shows that drug seizures have steadily risen in recent months. For example, Russian border guards in Tajikistan reported that August marked a record for the total amount drugs seized, over 700 kilograms, during a one-month period. However, evaluating the role of US/UN assistance in the rising seizure amounts is difficult to determine, experts say. There is no reliable way to gauge what the percentage of drugs being seized is relative to the overall amount of narcotics being trafficked, they add. Indeed, various media reports in Central Asia all say that the cultivation of opiates in Afghanistan, the main source of Central Asian drugs, is rapidly expanding. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Given the surge in production, some regional experts view the current level of US anti-trafficking assistance as inadequate. "It's simply not enough. It's a drop in the ocean. I think their [the US] priorityand they make no bones about itis terrorism. That's phase one over there. They'll turn to drug operations once they've got a secure base to work with, but drugs are phase three or four at this point," said Arabella Phillimore, an analyst at the Eurasia Group in New York.
The proliferation of drugs in the region has fueled a plethora of social ills -- including the some of the highest rates of HIV/AIDS infection in the world today that threaten the stabilization prospects for the foreseeable future. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Given the high levels of official corruption in Central Asia, it is relatively easy for large-scale drug traffickers to evade interdiction efforts, experts say. "The scale of income in drug traffic is so high and the scale of border guard salaries is so low that drug traffickers can always raise the ante," said Martha Brill Olcott, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Even if the sophistication of border control improves, drug traders would still find a way to move their goods."
Turkmenistan's mercurial diplomatic behavior is viewed as a significant liability in the effort to staunch the flow of narcotics out of Afghanistan. [For background information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkmenistan, which shares a 462-mile border with Afghanistan, receives no US anti-trafficking aid, and there is no reliable information on the amount of drugs flowing through the country. Several political analysts characterized the country as a "black hole" when it comes to the drug trade.
Turkmenistan is "a difficult environment and a tough work environment," the State Department official admitted. "Our investment has to be commensurate with to what we can accomplish, and we don't have enough information about what is going on over there."
A general lack of inter-state cooperation among Central Asian states serves as an additional barrier to interdiction operations. Regional leaders have spoken widely about a need for more joint anti-trafficking action, but little action has been taken.
Any hope for containing the drug trade in Central Asia requires a shift in emphasis of anti-trafficking programs away from a sole focus on interdiction to the expansion of initiatives that seek to curtail production and consumption, some experts say. Olcott, for one, argues that US policy should focus on building Afghanistan's economy, thereby offering those who cultivate narcotics alternate ways to earn a living. "If you want to get rid of the perniciousness of the drugs trade in economies, you need to go after the source," said Olcott. "If we don't do it in Afghanistan, it won't matter what we do elsewhere."
The INL is implementing a $60 million plan to provide alternative crop plans and funding for local anti-trafficking authorities in Afghanistan. But analysts regard this as a nominal amount, saying it would likely take billions to eradicate the poppy fields of Afghanistan. Economic redevelopmentor creating a market for something more financially attractive than opiumwould take decades, they add.
"If you took it [drug trafficking in Central Asia] very seriously, rather than seriously, you could pour in a ton of money [and] it would still not be easy to do," said Peter Reuter, a professor of public policy at the University of Maryland. "It's a major policy decision, and I can't think of a precedent for such a large-scale effort."
Ted Weihman is editorial assistant at EurasiaNet. He is a graduate of Columbia Universitys School of Journalism.
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