News that the United States plans a massive redeployment of its armed forces has Azerbaijanis wondering whether their country will soon host US troops. Azerbaijani officials are coy on the base question, prompting some local political analysts to say Baku is trying to leverage the issue to achieve a breakthrough on the stalled talks on a Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement.

Speculation over whether the United States would establish a military base in Azerbaijan began almost immediately after US leaders announced August 16 that up 70,000 US troops in Europe and East Asia would be redeployed. Most US soldiers appear headed back to the United States, but some will staff new facilities, in keeping with the Pentagon's desire to create a more mobile armed forces. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

A few days before the announcement, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visited Baku for hastily arranged talks. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Azerbaijani government provided only a vague description about the discussions. However, Zerkalo, an independent daily newspaper, claimed that a tentative base deal had been reached. "Moreover, the USA is interested in modernizing ... military airfields in Azerbaijan," Zerkalo reported on August 17, without citing a source.

Azerbaijani media have also seized on recent comments attributed to Gen. Charles Wald, the deputy commander for US forces in Europe, who reportedly indicated that US defense officials were considering Azerbaijan, Uganda and the island state of Sao Tome as potential host sites for US rapid deployment forces. According to the Azerbaijani reports, the United States is seeking a base in Azerbaijan to ensure the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and to monitor developments in Iran, which Washington believes is working hard to develop nuclear weapons. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While some Azerbaijani media outlets are treating an American base as a fait accompli, the only public statements on the issue by Azerbaijani officials have been non-committal. Foreign Minister Eldar Mammadyarov has acknowledged that talks are on-going, but he stressed on August 19 that "it is naive to think that military bases can be set up overnight."

Some analysts say it wasn't coincidental that Mammadyarov made the statement in Moscow. Russia is on record as opposing any US redeployment that would place American troops in the formerly Communist sphere, and a few observers believe the potential American base is at the center of a geopolitical game being played by Baku. The objective, from Baku's viewpoint, is to secure increased political support for a Karabakh peace settlement that is to Azerbaijan's liking. Azerbaijan has insisted that any settlement leave the region under Baku's jurisdiction. Azerbaijani officials have grown restless in recent months over the lack of progress in the peace talks. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Mammadyarov said in an August 19 television interview that the Karabakh question topped his agenda during talks with Russian leaders in Moscow. Some in Baku believe Russia, given Moscow's close strategic relationship with Armenia, is the key to achieving the desired breakthrough on Karabakh. A trade-off involving Azerbaijan's rejection of an American base, effectively in return for greater Russian support for Baku in the Karabakh peace process, could possibly pressure Armenia into softening its Karabakh negotiating position. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some pundits say Mammadyarov's attempt to use the base issue as a diplomatic bargaining chip has so far failed. They note that both Russia and the United States have given no public indication of shifting their existing positions on the Karabakh peace process. Given the apparent failure of what some in Baku describe as Azerbaijan's base "bluff," officials are now left to weigh the potential merits and liabilities of playing host to American troops.

Political analyst Rauf Mirqadirov, writing in an analysis published August 19 analysis by Zerkalo, examined the pros and cons of the base issue. On the plus side, Mirqadirov said the presence of US forces would facilitate rapid economic development in the region. He also downplayed the possibility of Russian retaliation, arguing that Moscow "is not ready for global confrontation with the United States."

Mirqadirov, however, envisioned several potential negatives arising out of a possible basing arrangement. An American presence, for example, could make Azerbaijan a target of Islamic militant action. It could also potentially limit Azerbaijan's options in striving to achieve its Karabakh settlement objectives.

In addition, Mirqadirov voiced concern about the possibility of Azerbaijan becoming embroiled in the long-running feud between the United States and Iran. "The Americans do not rule out that Iran is their future target," Mirqadirov said. "If all these statements are made in order to frighten Tehran – then that's one thing. But if the Americans start another mess – moreover, one along our border – then Azerbaijan, irrespective of its wishes, will be dragged into this conflict."

Azerbaijanis interviewed at random on the streets of Baku offered a mixed view on the base issue. "We need to see, first, what is our benefit from these bases. Will they help us in the war with Armenia?" said Nargiz, a university student. Niyazi, an employee at a trading house, suggested an American troop presence would "only bring us trouble with Iran." Others, however, said US troops would help defend against potential encroachment by Iran or Russia against Azerbaijan's sovereignty.