The only element of uncertainty in Uzbekistan’s presidential election on July 9 is how big a victory the incumbent, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, will score.

The vote is taking place just two months after a constitutional referendum that saw the presidential term extended from five to seven years. This fix has the effect of resetting Mirziyoyev’s time in office and allowed him to run twice more, meaning he could still be in power until 2037.

When Mirziyoyev, 65, came to explaining the need to hold early polls, he argued that they would ensure a fresh mandate “to a leader whom our people trust.”

Since there is no real political competition in Uzbekistan, it was clear that he was referring to himself. 

To lend the choreographed vote a veneer of democracy, the Central Election Commission has registered three also-rans: Ulugbek Inoyatov of the People’s Democratic Party, the Ecological Party’s Abdushuqur Khamzayev, and Robakhon Makhmudova, the only woman in the race, from the Adolat (Justice) party. 

The Milliy Tiklanish (National Revival) party, whose leader Alisher Qodirov stood against Mirziyoyev in the 2021 election and has earned a public profile by making controversial remarks, has decided this time to simply back the incumbent. The party praised Mirziyoyev and said that his reforms had actually achieved the goal of enacting most of its platform. 

Qodirov described this stance as being “the most expedient for the state, the public, and the party.”

None of these state-aligned opponents poses any challenge to Mirziyoyev, who got 80.1 percent of the vote at his most recent election. 

The paucity of alternatives on offer was highlighted in pre-election report published on June 26 by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, or ODIHR. 

“The political landscape has remained unchanged, and none of the parliamentary political parties stand in open opposition to the president’s policies and agenda”, the report read. 

The result is a dismally thrill-free election campaign. Candidates limply promote themselves at ersatz stump meetings with voters. But even the TV debates are held in their absence, with their proxies doing the job instead.

ODIHR said that “the campaign has been low-key, mirroring lack of opposition to the incumbent”. 

A would-be independent candidate, Khidirnazar Allakulov, once again failed to register his Hakikat, Tarakkiyot and Birdamlik (Truth, Progress and Solidarity) party. In June, the Justice Ministry rejected his bid, saying the application did not have the required number of signatures for registration. 

Candidates not backed by a registered party are not entitled to run. 

This state of affairs risks only compounding the general state of apathy.

“If there was any wish to give the public the option of real competition, at least a decent sparring partner [for Mirziyoyev], society would stand to gain a lot from it,” Mirzayor Erkinov, an activist and author of the Mirzo Zominiy blog, told Eurasianet. 

Erkinov says a lot has changed in Uzbek society since Mirziyoyev came to power in 2016. Even if everything might not be as people hoped, the public's expectation of what the state should be doing for them is evolving and growing more sophisticated. Despite the absence of genuine political plurality, Erkinov stays hopeful.

“As long I have some slender hope, I will cast my ballot. I really do not want us to return to ‘Old Uzbekistan,’” he said.

Old Uzbekistan is a reference to the period of hard-line authoritarianism propagate by the late President Islam Karimov, who was in power for 27 years until his sudden death in 2016. Fears that some of the excesses of those year could be making a comeback have become more pronounced in recent times.

The muzzling of the media and citizen journalists has intensified.  

A few months ago, more than 40 Uzbek journalists and activists published an open letter to Mirziyoyev about “hidden but strict” censorship and pleaded with him to intervene. In its latest edition of the World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders ranked Uzbekistan 133rd out of 180 nations. 

“Especially after the pandemic, pressure on the media has increased. But it is not happening at the highest level, but at the low and medium levels, at the level of khokims (regional governors) and district and city law enforcement,” the owner of a local news outlet told Eurasianet on condition of anonymity. 

Despite the worsening overall, the situation is dynamic and counterintuitive. The media enjoy more leverage than they did under Karimov and the authorities do have to consider that when pursuing any policies. 

“Some media outlets have even started abusing that [power],” the news outlet owner said.

The election, meanwhile, is such a formality that it is unlikely to have any impact on all this, he said.

“The re-election of the president will mean nothing. Everything will continue as is, at least for another couple of years,” he said.