Less than two months after being re-elected to a third term, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has made sweeping changes to his administration that he appears to hope will consolidate his control. 

Some observers wonder, however, if the rejig may in fact signal cracks within the power vertical.

The reshuffle to the presidential staff, a process that typically happens away from public scrutiny, was unveiled in the dying days of August. A spokesman for Mirziyoyev posted a list of the appointments to his Telegram channel, but he provided no details or explanations.

One major change was the abolition of the post of chief of staff – in effect the most powerful person in the hierarchy after the president himself. 

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When Sardor Umurzakov, a former foreign trade minister and deputy prime minister, was given the job last July, replacing Zainilobiddin Nizomiddinov, who was removed under a dark cloud shortly after a bout of deadly unrest in Karakalpakstan, it was widely read as a potential sign of his future ascendancy.

Armed with his Western education, the 45-year-old has been notably proactive in his previous roles, in which he has, among other things, steered Uzbekistan’s World Trade Organization membership negotiations.

Umurzakov was no less feverish in the presidential administration. One novelty ushered in under his watch was the creation of a numerous deputies under his control whose job was act as plenipotentiaries to the regions, “establishing direct ties and adopting prompt measures, taking into account the situation on the ground.” 

Unlike his publicity-shy predecessor, Umurzakov was unafraid of the spotlight. He regularly held high-level government meetings in which he often acted as the president’s de facto enforcer.

Last September, a leaked audio recording revealed him telling off and announcing the dismissal of several provincial leadership figures on Mirziyoyev’s behalf. In December, at the height of an energy crisis that was generating much public discontent, Umurzakov made headlines by threatening officials in charge of the sector with criminal investigations.

For all that, Umurzakov has now been shown the door.

“[Personnel and structural changes] have most likely been precipitated by the fact that in Mirziyoyev’s view, things were not done, that the administration was not functioning … or was not as productive as he wanted it to be. Most likely, this was also connected with the personality of Sardor Umurzakov, who led the administration. I think all of this combined into a situation where Mirziyoyev saw no other way out than a reshuffle,” Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told Eurasianet.

“And this was not just a reshuffle, but also a structural change in the administration so that no one [person] within this body would have so much power, so much authority and influence,” Umarov added.

Under the new structure, all advisors and assistants are directly subordinated to the president, without the chief of staff functioning as the connecting central node.

Umurzakov was transferred to a newly created role of presidential adviser on special assignments, but his specific area of responsibilities has not been spelt out. 

Part of Umurzakov’s team had to leave the presidential office altogether. His deputy, Sunatilla Bekenov, was dismissed, while the team that coordinated assistants to the chief of staff in the regions was disbanded. 

Since all this unfolded, Umurzakov has not been seen at the events with Mirziyoyev. In the past, he accompanied the president pretty much everywhere. Most recently, earlier this week, he left the public council for entrepreneurship support, another forum within the president’s office designed to solve the problems of small businesses. 

And while Umurzakov is on the outs, another notable figure has seen a fresh upturn in her fortunes: Mirziyoyev’s eldest daughter, Saida.

As part of the reshuffle, she was named as her father’s aide, essentially making her one of the most important people in the administration. This bit of personnel management has inevitably inspired chatter that Mirziyoyeva could one day aspire to succeed her father.

Mirziyoyeva’s rise through the ranks has been rapid. It began in 2019, when she was appointed deputy head of the Agency for Information and Mass Communications, a state media regulator that operates under the aegis of the president’s office.

Since November, Mirziyoyeva has served as head of the communications and information policy department in the presidential administration. 

“The appointment of Saida Mirziyoyeva as an assistant to the president reveals simply that Shavkat Mirziyoyev finds himself in a rather vulnerable position, that he has no choice but to rely completely on his family and surround himself with people who are absolutely loyal to him and who will not let him down, who will not betray him or oppose his ideas or interests,” Umarov said. 

Where Umurzakov welcomed public attention, Mirziyoyeva positively revels in it. Her pronouncements, be it on matters of gender rights, education or the value of a free press, routinely make headlines. 

Quite what her new job is going to entail remains murky for now. Umarov suggested she may well continue to do more of the same, taking the lead on trying to burnish Uzbekistan’s image among the international community.

As for Umurzakov, the speculation is that he has been sidelined as a means of diluting what was becoming his expanding influence over the Uzbek elites. RFE/RL’s Uzbek service, Ozodlik, cited sources to report that he had had “disagreements” with the executive branch and Saida Mirziyoyeva herself too. 

“That recent reshuffle might be a sign of both power struggles within the presidential administration, as well as between the government and the presidential administration”, Sardor Salim, a Tashkent-based political analyst, told Eurasianet.

One question hanging over such a reorganization is how much power the presidential office will retain, especially given the role the chief of staff used to play.

“Compared to its previous form, the restructuring will weaken the influence of the presidential administration, but this doesn’t mean losing it,” Salim said.