In July, Afghan President Hamid Karzai ditched his vice-president, Marshal Mohammad Fahim, one of the country's most powerful warlords. In September, Karzai sacked Ismail Khan another influential warlord as the governor of Herat. The moves were designed to expand the influence of Afghanistan's central government. Yet, both have failed to produce the desired effect. With Afghanistan's presidential election just days away, warlords remain in position to adversely influence the country's political future.
Karzai appears headed for victory in the October 9 presidential vote. But given the fact that Karzai's administration exerts little authority beyond Kabul, some observers are warning the election could mark what the group Human Rights Watch (HRW) characterizes as a "hollow victory" for Afghanistan's democratization process.
To a large extent the warlord threat to Afghan's elections both the presidential vote and the parliamentary ballot scheduled for 2005 has been overshadowed by the ongoing Taliban insurgency. Taliban raids have intensified in the weeks leading up to the presidential vote. On October 4, for example, seven Taliban militants were killed in a clash with government security forces.
Taliban violence has kept the presidential campaigning limited mainly to Kabul, although Karzai ventured from the capital on October 5 for an appearance in the eastern city of Ghanzi. Amid heavy security, about 10,000 Afghans attended Karzai's rally in Ghanzi marking the president's first campaign appearance outside of Kabul.
The Taliban insurgency represents the main security threat in southern and southeastern Afghan provinces. In rural areas of those regions, Taliban loyalists have sought to coerce residents into staying away from the polls. "In the central parts of Kandahar, Uruzgan [and] Zabul, where the government is in control, if a person doesn't register for the election, he will be fined 500 afghanis [$11]. But in some parts outside government control, some people were beheaded by the Taliban because they had voter cards for the election," one Kandahari resident told the local Kabul Weekly.
Warlords and their militias, operating largely beyond the control of Kabul, wield the most influence in northern Afghanistan, political analysts say. "Many voters in rural areas say the militias have already told them how to vote, and that they're afraid of disobeying them. Activists and political organizers who oppose the warlords fear for their lives," said Brad Adams, HRW's Asia director.
A HRW report, titled "The Rule of the Gun: Human Rights Abuses and Political Repression in the Run-up to Afghanistan's Presidential Election, suggests that warlordism poses an even greater threat to Afghanistan's stabilization efforts than does the Taliban insurgency. "Political repression by local strongmen is the principle problem," the report stated. "Throughout the country, militarized political factionsmilitias and remnants of past Afghan military forces who came into power in the wake of the Taliban's [late 2001] defeat, continue to cement their hold on political power at the local level, using force, threats and corruption to stifle more legitimate political activity."
Political observers say Karzai's tentative approach on the warlord issue has exacerbated the problem. In an address to the United Nations on September 22, Karzai identified Taliban-inspired terrorism and drug trafficking as the main threats to Afghan stabilization efforts. Karzai's omission of warlords as a security danger underscores the perception among analysts that his administration has not come to grips with the problem.
"Karzai did not make
Daan van der Schriek is a freelance journalist based in Kabul.
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