Would the CSTO come to Armenia's aid in a war with Azerbaijan?
The head of Armenia's CSTO office says, yes:
"If, may God never let it happen, Azerbaijan takes concrete military steps, naturally, based on the requirement of Point 4 of CSTO statute its members shall provide [Armenia] with assistance, I am stressing it, also with military assistance, as Armenia is a CSTO member," Director of CSTO Armenian representation Nver Torosyan said at a press conference today.
As a collective security organization, he would seem to have a point (assuming that Azerbaijan attacked Armenia proper, not Nagorno Karabakh, which isn't recognized by anyone and which isn't a CSTO member). But would CSTO member countries (including Russia, Belarus, and all the 'stans except Turkmenistan) actually come to Armenia's aid? It seems hard to fathom, and Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Musabeyov agrees:
“The statements of the director of the CSTO Armenian office Nver Torosyan spread by Armenian mass media are absurd”, political scientist Rasim Musabeyov said....
“None of the states except for Russia supported Armenia while voting on the resolution on the state in the occupied Azerbaijani lands at the UN General Assembly, while Uzbekistan supported Azerbaijan. Thus, Armenia will get no support from CSTO. He may have hinted at Russia, but in this case Moscow says officially that it recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan”, said the analyst.
Anyway, let's hope Armenia doesn't really believe the CSTO will have its back like Georgia thought the U.S. had its...